Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The first leg of the Playoff Round is in the books! The biggest story from Tuesday was definitively Real Madrid’s come-from-behind win to snatch all 3 points at Manchester City.
Wednesday contained plenty of drama as well, with Club Brugge upsetting Atalanta 2-1, thanks in part to a soft penalty in stoppage time.
Bayern Munich won 1-2 at Celtic, but not without a nervy second half. Feyenoord came out swinging at home against AC Milan, getting a goal in the 3rd minute and riding out that lead for the remainder of the game.
For our Best Bets, we went 2-1, missing out on Atalanta. We look solid for our bonus of Madrid to advance over City, but missed our bonus on Milan.
Upcoming Matches:
Now come the return legs, so the away team from last week will now host the 2nd leg.
I said in my last article I’m always a little hesitant in betting 2-legged ties, as the motivation and strategy can change drastically from an ordinary league match, essentially playing 180 minutes of soccer, separated by a week and distance.
That being said, this is where I’ll be laying my money this week; let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: AC Milan To Win In Regular Time +110 (Feb. 18, 2025; 12:45 p.m. EST):
This first bet is a market I don’t often visit, the “Method of Victory” market. For this bet, I’m backing AC Milan to turn things around against Feyenoord at home, and to do so in regulation.
Essentially, this will require that AC Milan win by 2 goals in regulation. 1 goal to tie the aggregate score (they’re currently down 0-1) and then another to put them in front. If your book doesn’t include this market, try AC Milan -1.5 spread to achieve similar results.
AC Milan were stunned last week by Feyenoord, no easy way to put it. Feyenoord sold their best player, Santi Giminez in January to none other than AC Milan. They then fired their coach two days before their home match against AC Milan. Some don’t believe in the “New Manager Bump” as much as I, but it may have played a factor in the first leg.
However, AC Milan will feel embarrassed by the loss. On paper, they’re the far better squad, especially after snatching Feyenoord’s best player and top goalscorer. They’ve been building a solid project and brought in big names in January with Giminez and Kyle Walker in defense from Manchester City.
They led Feyenoord last week in shots and had 3 times the shots on target. But the reaction from fans if they don’t advance will be weightier than any statistic I could share, so I’m betting on them to bounce back and win comfortably for the fans.
If you’re scared of the spread, take AC Milan to Qualify -180.
Pick #2: Atalanta to Qualify -130 (Feb. 18, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
Our next bet is somewhat similar to AC Milan, backing the favorite to go through, despite being a goal down. Here though, I’m just betting on them to advance, whether after added time or in regulation.
Atalanta went down early in the game, but equalized before halftime. The match looked set to end 1-1 until a late penalty was given to Club Brugge following hands to the face by Isak Hien. After replay, the contact was so minimal most pundits I’ve heard have agreed the penalty was too soft, yet stood.
Atalanta, who won the Europa League last year and had a strong League Phase to begin the UCL this season, should be going all out to advance. Especially given the controversy in the penalty, they’ll feel aggrieved and want to turn the tables.
Each side played to a draw in their domestic leagues this weekend, with Brugge drawing with a Belgian Club in the relegation zone.
The concerning thing for Atalanta is they’ve only scored one goal in their last 2 matches, drastically different than their 5-0 win 3 matches ago. If Retegui brings his scoring boots, Atalanta should win this match and advance at home.
Pick #3: 2-Leg SGP: Juventus Win or Draw and Under 4.5 Goals -105 (Feb. 19, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last Best Bet, I’m eying Juventus to hold onto their 1-goal lead and advance and, in classic Italian fashion, keep it a defensive and low-scoring game.
To be fair, Juventus have not quite been the epitome of Italian Defensive Football this season, though they have conceded the 2nd fewest goals in the Serie A and only conceded 7 in the UCL League Phase, tied for 6th fewest of the 36 clubs.
Their bigger problem has been scoring goals and drawing matches, as they only managed 9 goals in the UCL League Phase and have 13 draws in Serie A, the most in the league. One of the biggest statistics they have going for them though is that they’re unbeaten away from home in the Champions League and have only lost once on the road in Serie A. They’ve only lost twice at home this season in the UCL and Serie A as well.
If there’s one consistency about Juve this season, it’s that they are tough to beat. Sure they don’t win too much, but they do seem to love a low-scoring draw this season.
Briefly on PSV, they’ll be without Ricardo Pepi in attack, meaning it will be primarily up to 34 year old Luuk de Jong and 36 year old Ivan Perišić. Great players, but will they have what it takes to get 2 up on Juve after playing so many matches in a row? I doubt it.
Bonus:
Real Madrid Moneyline -115. Can Real Madrid put Man City’s Champions League hopes to rest with a win at home? Let’s find out!
Season Record:
League Phase Best Bets: 12-12
Playoff Round Best Bets: 2-1
Season Total: 14-13
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