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Champions League Best Bets (Sep. 17, 2024-Sep. 19, 2024):

Updated: Sep 30

UEFA Champions League Logo

The Champions League is back with a brand new format for the 2024/25 season! While the new format is more confusing and some are concerned about player safety with the additional games, the new format is set to deliver big games and exciting storylines across all stages of the competition, making it great for fans.


If you’re new to soccer in general, the UEFA Champions League pits the best European soccer clubs against one another to find out who is the best of the best in Europe.


There have already been some exciting matches and stories in the final qualification playoffs to make it into this season’s Champions League, particularly with Young Boys beating Galatasaray for a spot.


New UCL Format:


This week begins the “League Phase” of the competition. In this phase, clubs play 8 matches and earn points for a win or draw like a traditional league table (e.g. EPL, La Liga, etc.). The top 8 in the League Phase advance to the knockout Round of 16, while spots 9-24 will then have a playoff to determine the final 8 clubs advancing to the Round of 16. The bottom 25-36 clubs are out of European competition entirely and will not go down to the Europa or Conference League, like prior versions of the competition. 


Simply put, there will be big games in League Phase, Playoff Phase, and Knockout Phase of the competition, making it dreamland for fans and bettors. 


This Series: 


In this Bettor In Green article series we’ll look at the upcoming Champions League matches and discuss my 3 Best Bets for the upcoming slate. Each week we’ll recap some of the action, see how we did with our bets, and look ahead to the upcoming matches.


Upcoming Matches: 


Matches kick off on Sep. 17, 2024 at 12:45 p.m. EST and take place over 3 days rather than 2 this week. Matches windows will be 12:45 p.m. EST and 3:00 p.m. EST. 


Big matchups include AC Milan hosting Liverpool, Manchester City hosting Inter Milan, Atalanta hosting Arsenal, and Monaco hosting Barcelona.


Let’s get to the bets:


Best Bets:

 

Pick #1: Celtic Win to Nil +125 (Sep. 18, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):


For our first matchup we look at Celtic taking on newcomers Slovan Bratislava. The Slovakian Champions will have their first match on the road in Glasgow and may be without their manager, who has missed the last two matches due to illness.


Celtic are currently 23 matches unbeaten across all competitions and friendlies, with their last loss coming March 3, 2024. Of those 23, they’ve won 20 and have kept a clean sheet in 11, including 5 clean sheets in their last 6 (all 6 of which were wins).


Slovan Bratislava currently lead the Slovakian league and looked good in UCL qualifying, beating FC Midtjylland along the way, but their best results came at home. I think they’ll struggle to get off the ground against a well-coached Celtic team in Glasgow.


Pick #2: Barcelona Moneyline -130 (Sep. 19, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):

 

This match between Barcelona at Monaco will be a big revenge match for Barça, who were beaten 0-3 at home to Monaco in the last preseason friendly each of these sides played.


Both sides enter this match in decent form, with Monaco unbeaten in their last 8 matches across all competitions and friendlies (3-1-0 in Ligue 1).


Barcelona have won all 5 La Liga matches, every match they’ve played since losing at home to Monaco in that friendly.


However, that match was a friendly and this is the real deal. Barça suffered a blow at the weekend with an injury to Dani Olmo, but they’ll have Lamine Yamal, who missed the friendly while still returning from winning the Euros. Speaking of “Lamine’s,” Monaco look set to be without Lamine Camara, one of the 3 goalscorers in last month’s friendly.


I expect a strong revenge performance from Barça to snap the unbeaten streak of Monaco.


Pick #3: Arsenal Moneyline -115 (Sep. 19, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):

 

For our final Best Bet, we look at Atalanta hosting Arsenal. I was back and forth a bit on this bet but ultimately like Arsenal to get the away win.


Arsenal are in good form despite some key injuries, having bested Tottenham at the weekend in the North London Derby. They dropped points against Brighton but otherwise have looked a dominant team. Depth has long been a question, but additions in defense, midfield, and attack should help them survive this tough run of games. 


Although I still am relatively high on them, Atalanta are struggling to live up to hype of last year. They lost their last 2 games before this weekend (although tough matches), then won 3-2 against a Fiorentina side who have had a relatively poor start to the season. Also, notably, Ademola Lookman played against Fiorentina for the first time in the league this season. He played a full 90-minutes so we’ll see if he can recover and play just as well by Thursday.


The main thing that gives me pause about this bet (besides the threat of Lookman) is that Arsenal travel to Manchester City at the weekend, so they may be looking ahead to that game and prioritize winning that league match more than the first UCL match of 8. However, I think they get it done, even without the full starting 11, similarly to how they won against Spurs in the NLD. Arteta will need to rely on a few players outside the regular 11 and I expect someone to step up and snag the win. Arteta will feel his team need the motivation and confidence of a road win in the Champions League before taking the fight to Manchester.


Bonus:


Another two teams I’ll be backing to win this week are Sporting Lisbon Moneyline -145 and Aston Villa Moneyline -150. Although those odds are a little less lucrative than what I usually give out for a Best Bet, I’ll be betting them this week, primarily fading their opponents.

(EDIT: Sporting Lisbon’s line has now dropped to -200 since this article was posted Monday afternoon. If you’re looking for something else Tuesday afternoon, I’ll also be on Liverpool Moneyline -105.)


Another bet I really like is Dortmund Moneyline +100. Both Dortmund and Club Brugge are off to solid starts in their respective leagues, with Brugge topping the Belgian league. However, I think this is a good spot for Dortmund and think Club Brugge may be a touch out-classed in this matchup. 

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