Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
The biggest headline from matchweek 11 is undoubtedly reigning Champions Manchester City losing to Brighton, marking the first time Man City coach Pep Guardiola has ever lost 4 matches in a row in his managerial career.
With Arsenal drawing 1-1 with Chelsea, Liverpool now sit 5 points clear atop the EPL table with 28 points, going 9-1-1 so far this season.
Our first Best Bet, West Ham, couldn’t get it done, ending 0-0 with Everton thanks to some solid saves from the Everton keeper. We hit Nottingham Forest to Win Either Half, despite them going on to lose the match. Unfortunately, we didn’t hit our player prop, so our Best Bets went 1-2 this week.
Across the Globe did a bit better, going 3-2, losing Dortmund and on Orlando, although they did end up drawing in regulation and winning on penalties.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 12 kicks off Saturday at 7:30 a.m. EST with Leicester City hosting Chelsea. Saturday also includes an interesting fixture between out-of-form Arsenal hosting high-flying Nottingham Forest.
The marquee match comes Saturday afternoon with Manchester City hosting Tottenham, the team that beat them in the Carabao Cup to start Guardiola’s 4-match loss streak.
There are two matches Sunday (Southampton/Liverpool and Ipswich/Man United) and one match Monday afternoon, Newcastle hosting West Ham.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay: Chelsea Moneyline and Arsenal Moneyline +100 (Nov. 23, 2024; 7:30 a.m. EST and 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet I’m backing the early kickoff, taking the away team, Chelsea, to beat Leicester City.
Chelsea sit 3rd in the table, although places 3rd through 6th all have 19 points, while 7th through 9th all have 18. Chelsea need a win to stay in the top 4 and will look to do so against 15th-place Leicester, who have only won 1 home match all season, a 1-0 victory against Bournemouth.
Chelsea are coming off a 8-0 thrashing of FC Noah in the Europa Conference League, then a hard-fought draw against Arsenal at home. They’ve now had he international break to prepare and should be ready to beat Leicester, the club Chelsea coach Enzo Maresca coached last season.
For our other leg, we have Arsenal taking on Nottingham Forest. Arsenal need the win to get back into the title challenge conversation, but also a win would be their 2000th in top-flight soccer, only the second (behind Liverpool) to record this achievement.
Forest have been punching above their weight this season and have played really well. However, they struggled last time out against Newcastle and I think this Arsenal team will be too tough of a challenge.
Pick #2: Liverpool Clean Sheet +110 (Nov. 24, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
For our next bet, I’m backing Liverpool to get the clean sheet against Southampton in the road.
Liverpool may be without star right back Trent Alexander-Arnold, however, he went off after 25 minutes in the last EPL match, with Conor Bradley coming on and seeing out a clean sheet in that match against Aston Villa.
Virgil Van Dijk looks set to play, so the Liverpool defense should be mostly there, minus keeper, Alisson.
Southampton are bottom of the table and are last for goals scored. They’ll be at home but I doubt they’ll be able to exploit Liverpool, who have conceded the fewest goals per match in the league.
Pick #3: SGP: Manchester United Moneyline and Over 2.5 Goals +115 (Nov. 24, 2024; 11:30 a.m. EST):
For our last Best Bet, I’m backing the “new manager boost” with Manchester United and Ruben Amorim.
Amorim had Sporting CP flying in the Portuguese League, with Viktor Gyökeres scoring 16 goals so far this season. He’s now going to be trying to get the same out of United.
He said in a press conference on Friday he’d still be opting for his preferred system, with 3 defenders at the back.
I think this shift to a 3-4-3 will help United get forward and score goals, but may leave them exposed at the back while they get used to their new responsibilities in the system.
Ipswich, their opponents, are 18th (of 20) for average goals conceded and, while both clubs aren’t doing great in the goal department, with 12 apiece, but with some new confidence from United, this should get to 3 goals, whether they all come from United or whether they get some help with one from Ipswich.
Across the Globe:
Marseille To Win Either Half -110 (France; Ligue 1)
Barcelona Moneyline -145 (Spain; La Liga)
LAFC Moneyline -105 (USA; MLS)
Fiorentina Moneyline +130 (Italy; Serie A)
Lazio Moneyline -115 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 16-16
Across the Globe: 29-30
These odds were provided, and I’ll be betting each of these with our friends over at DraftKings! Join me at our link below!
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