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English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 22 (Jan. 18, 2025-Jan. 20, 2025):


Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.


For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.


Recap:


Last week, we discussed some of the coaching changes in the EPL, so let’s take a look at how they faired.


New West Ham boss Graham Potter had his first league match in charge, as well as his first home match for West Ham. West Ham were clinical with their chances, winning 3-2, despite having only 4 shots. Fulham had 21 shots, a couple hitting the woodwork, as well as the majority of possession, but couldn’t get the win. Potter will still be figuring out his best squad, but a win at home certainly helps.


New Everton boss David Moyes did not have quite the homecoming he would have wanted, losing 0-1 at home to Aston Villa. While neither side looked particularly stellar, Morgan Rogers played a beautiful pass to Ollie Watkins for the lone Villa goal. Everton came close to equalizing in the final minutes through Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who couldn’t find the back of the net.


In other news, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool played to a 1-1 draw at Anfield, while Arsenal came from behind to get a 2-1 win at home in the North London Derby.


Critically, our betting slump seems to have subsided, going 2-1 for Best Bets, only one Liverpool goal away from a 3-0 week. Across the Globe was also solid, going 4-1, only losing Lorient.


Upcoming Matches:

 

Matches are still coming thick and fast, with a quick turnaround after the midweek matches. Clubs in the UEFA competitions will be right back in action in the middle of next week as well.


Sunday brings us a fun London Derby between West Ham and Crystal Palace, while we’ll get some Monday Night Football with Chelsea hosting Wolves on Monday at 3:00 p.m. EST to cap the weekend.


Let’s get to the bets:


Best Bets:

 

Pick #1: Fulham Moneyline -125 (Jan 18, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):


Fulham have put together a solid season thus far, one I would argue has gone under the radar thanks to the likes of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth over-performing and a few other big clubs underperforming.


Fulham and USMNT defender Antonee Robinson has the 3rd most assists in the league with 9 and has built a strong partnership down the left side of Fulham’s attack with Alex Iwobi. Fulham also lead the league in accurate crosses per match, providing good service into the strikers.


Leicester, their opponents, have struggled in goal since Mads Hermansen got injured a month or so ago. Polish keeper Jakub Stolarczyk has started the last 5 matches across all competitions, winning 1 and losing 4, conceding 2 or more goals in each match.


The “new-manager bump” seems to have hit Van Nistelrooy when he was interim manager of Manchester United, as he’s only managed a 1-1-6 record in the EPL since taking over Leicester.


Pick #2: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline +145 (Jan. 19, 2025; 9:00 a.m. EST):

 

You never quite know what you’re going to get with Tottenham this season as they’re 7-3-11 so far this season, but having scored the second most goals, only behind Liverpool.


One thing that is surprising about this Tottenham team, for as much as they’re criticized for defensive struggles and unwillingness to break from a high line this season, they’ve actually conceded the fewest goals away from home this season.


Tottenham are coming off a loss in the North London Derby and sit in 14th, far below where they’ll feel they should be. Pressure will surely continue to mount if they lose to Everton, who sit in 16th.


Everton have a new coach in David Moyes, who will look to get a better result than his first game this past week. When Moyes was at West Ham most recently, he employed a counter-attacking style that rarely relied on possession. 


While Spurs’ high line is vulnerable to the counter-attack, Spurs like to play with possession and take multiple shots, a game plan they should be able to implement against Moyes’ Everton.


Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Manchester City Moneyline and Chelsea Moneyline -110 (Jan. 19, 2025; 11:30 a.m. EST and Jan. 20, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):


For my last bet, I’m employing a similar tactic to a winning bet from last week, taking two heavy favorites in a parlay against clubs at or near the relegation zone.


First up is Manchester City on the road at Ipswich. To be honest, this is the leg that scares me the most, primarily because City have been in a slump and because Ipswich have managed a few good results against big teams, such as their wins over Spurs and Chelsea, as well as their draw with Man U.


City looked all but certain to get their 4th win in a row and break free from their slump, until they let a 2-goal lead slip late in the game for a 2-2 draw with Brentford.


Erling Haaland, City’s star striker, just signed a huge contract extension, so I expect a solid performance from him.


Bonus: I’ll also be backing Haaland after securing the bag, taking Man City to win and Haaland to Score Anytime -120.


Our next leg is the final match of the weekend, Chelsea hosting Wolves.


I faded Wolves last time out in a similar parlay and, while I like the improvements and success since Vitor Pereira took over last month, Wolves are still the side that have conceded the most goals per match in the league. Despite relatively decent goalscoring output this season, they’ve failed to score in their last two league matches.


Chelsea have had a few poor results as of late, dropping them out of the top 4. They’ve certainly got the quality and the depth to beat Wolves. Chelsea are a team that like to control possession and I imagine Cole Palmer will unlock the Wolves defense pretty quickly.


Across the Globe:


  • Racing Genk Moneyline +110 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)

  • PSG Moneyline -135 (France; Ligue 1)

  • RB Leipzig Moneyline -105 (Germany; Bundesliga)

  • Fiorentina Moneyline -130 (Italy; Serie A)

  • Royal Antwerp Moneyline -130 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)


Bonus: as a fan, I’ll also be betting a couple units on the USMNT Moneyline -130 against Venezuela in an International Friendly. The US will field a squad of mostly MLS players and have already had a few leave the camp.


However, they’ll have home-field advantage and will have some exciting young players, like Diego Luna.




Season Record:


Best Bets: 27-35

Across the Globe: 49-51



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