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Ethan's Premium Picks.



We have a 5u MAX bet in College Basketball loaded right now and I won't waste much time getting into it. But before I do, we have a loaded card today of NFL, CBB, and NHL. I have a couple of free plays to give out before diving into the premium picks. We are coming off of an NFL weekend where we profited nearly 14u and are looking to strike gold again this weekend both in the NFL and in College Hoops. Let's get into some free plays.


CBB:


MICH/IOWA O159.5 -110


I like the matinee matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and Iowa Hawkeyes to go up and over the total of 159.5 points today. This number is set high, but for good reason. Over the last few seasons, Michigan and Iowa have both relied heavily on their offense to win games. Both teams look to go out on the court and simply put more shots through the hoop than you do. Nothing has changed this season as both offenses rank in the top 55 in scoring offense. Iowa is averaging 85.3 ppg while Michigan is right behind them with 81.2 ppg. Both teams rely heavily on their perimeter shooting for a bulk of their scoring and both teams are shooting 35% or better from beyond the arch. When it comes to possessions per game, or pace of play, both teams rank in the top 1/3rd in college basketball. I expect this to be an action packed, up and down the court type of game. Enough about the offense, when betting on an over that is set this high, the defense has to fit the mold of an over as well, and both of these defenses do. Both defenses rank near the bottom as Michigan is allowing 76.6 ppg and Iowa is giving up 78.6 ppg. Lastly, Iowa is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at over 76% and the line for this game is set at Iowa -4. This tells us that this game will likely be a tight one and if Iowa is up late, I expect to get some points from the charity stripe. With a spread that close, overtime is always a live possibility as well. Everything is pointing to the over in this matchup as I look for Iowa to win in an 87-79 type of game. This one should be fun.


NFL:


Teasers:


I am giving out some teasers as free plays because I know teasers are becoming more and more juiced as the years go on. I have an offshore book that still gives me -110 and 2 team 6 point teasers and I would suggest shopping around to see if you can find a -110. I would not lay more than -120 on teasers as it becomes -EV after that which means you will likely lose long term. Let's get into it. There are a ton of teaser legs that I like in the NFL today. They include:


JAX +1.5

CHI +3

TB +1.5

IND +3


There are other lines that are advantageous teaser spots, such as BAL -7.5, however, I am not as confident in those. I don't think you can go wrong teasing any of the 4 options above and quite honestly, I think all 4 teams win outright. The 2 official plays that I have made are:


CHI +9.5/TB+7.5 -110

TB +7.5/IND +9 -110


I may add more combinations by kickoff but like I said, I don't think you can go wrong either way with those 4 options. The most important thing here is to shop around and make sure you're getting -120 or better on your 2 team 6 point teasers.

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