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GMR's Premium Picks for Moreno vs Royval 2


TheGMReports Sports Betting Picks

 Tapping Vegas is up 42 units since the show started in November! I'm giving out THREE plays this week as I already tweeted one out so I don't think it's fair to count for this article, but did want to further elaborate. In this exclusive article, I invite you to elevate your sports betting experience to new heights. Gone are the days of relying on mere chance; it's time to make informed decisions that resonate with the heartbeat of the sporting world. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or an eager newcomer, our premium insights are tailored to meet the needs of the discerning sports enthusiast. Let's get after it!


Manuel Torres vs Chris Duncan O 1.5 +154

   I did so much research on this card its disgusting. So Vegas is feeding us a STRONG narrative for this fight. Vegas is telling you that Manuel Torres is going to get a win on his home soil of Mexico by KO/TKO/DQ and win early. He's a decent favorite at -175 but what about method? His KO/TKO/DQ is -110. I find that very strange. Barcelos who fights right before him is also at -175 on the ML but Barcelo's worst method payout is all the way up at +225. In fact, not even Rosas Jr ( ML -230), Zellhuber (ML -278), or Moreno (ML -298) have negative odds for any available method. I can get the double decision of either a KO or Sub for Moreno who is almost a -300 favorite for better odds (+150) than Torres. My research indicates a much different story. So does Vegas know something we don't or did they get this fights lines wrong?


UFC lightweight finish percentages
UFC Lightweight Finish Percentages

Welterweight and Lightweight (which Torres and Duncan are) have both seen 1,303 total fights in their respective divisions, ranking first among all the divisions, giving us tons of data to work with. In those Lightweight fights, 48% have ended in a decision with the average fight lasting around 10:34 seconds. That's well over our target goal of 7:30. We also need to keep in mind that these are all time numbers. Back in just 2005, around 74% of all fights were ending in stoppages. That number has dropped by 22% in not even two decades. Since the pandemic, we have seen a lot more fights in smaller cages like the UFC Apex which sports a 25 foot cage. This card is in Mexico City and will have a 30 foot cage. Is the size of the cage a big deal? It's a HUGE deal! While only 5 ft smaller, the 25 foot cage's square footage takes a DRASTIC hit making the cage 30% smaller! With less area to maneuver and dance around the octagon, we see a lot more action. Smaller cages see a 10% increase in finish rate due to this. So we add to that with two guys who aren't incredible offensively and have a COMBINED rate of being finished at barely 10%. The fact that we're even getting a 1.5 line in the bigger cage, in one of the most competitive divisions, with these two fighters is surprising. Let alone the fact we are getting it at plus money. Could this be a typical case of Vegas just knows more than everybody? Sure. But I'm willing to take the risk here. I have another play in this fight later in this article so please consider joining one of our premium plans to get access to that play. At $1 a month, this play alone will pay for itself.

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