Let me explain because I can imagine this will be contentious. For redraft purposes I think this year will be a bust for Worthy drafters. Obviously this depends on where you can draft him and what you expect him to be but I'll outline what I believe below. For dynasty it all depends on your playstyle and outlook. If you play in three year windows like I see suggested all the time and you're not risk averse, I think as a good dart throw he will pay dividends in year two or three. If you can sell for an established player, a more promising rookie, good draft pick, etc. then yeah by all means cash out early also. Though dynasty is supposed to be you know building a dynasty, it's clearly common to see many managers bail before a promising young player takes off. You can take advantage to acquire him dirt cheap also to take advantage of this but you have to be prepared to have diamond hands for a variety of reasons I will outline below. Once again, I don't think he will be a complete bust long term but you have to understand what you are getting, where you are acquiring him, and understand for this season he probably won't be an integral part of the Chiefs let alone your dynasty team. Let's dive in now.
Competition With Other Players Travis Kelce can't stop and won't be stopped. Continually defying the odds year after year as I pray for his downfall, it hasn't happened yet. The Lions opener was a potential bad start but game after game I played against him he would get that ankle snapped and just tape the shit up and slowly put me down like Old Yeller. At 34 years old sure the age has to catch up eventually but if anyone has longevity it's Travis and especially this year. Though everyone lamented his lowest receiving total since 2015 it still stood at 93-984-5 for the regular season and in postseason he exploded for 32-355-3 to still have juice left. While I do believe he's on borrowed time due to age, his brother Jason's retirement, and his relationship with Taylor Swift I think we are still a year or two away from him stepping aside and as long as he's on the field he's the number one target. Now let's look at Rashee Rice. Many are expecting Rice to be suspended for a portion of this 2024 season. I'm confused as to why. KMBC 9 news for Kansas City reports Rice will not go on trial for his involvement in the Dallas crash until December 9th, 2024. The photographer assault incident has been completely dropped at victim request and the story about Rice getting friends to shoot up an ex girlfriend's new boyfriend's car was a complete nothing burger. The Chiefs even apparently knew about this and kept it under wraps and still took him. By December this year the vast majority of leagues will be in playoffs or heading there shortly, not enough time for Worthy to make a difference even if the trial is unusually speedy which we know the American justice system is not. I think we are looking at an Alvin Kamara situation where this will be delayed and rescheduled etc. so much a resolution and suspension won't happen until next year some time. The most realistic outcome is a suspension for Rice to start the 2025 season. Rice on the field eats into Worthy and everyone else not named Travis Kelce immensely. He was eased into last season not even breaking over 51% of snaps until week 7 and still finished with a line of 79-938-7 receiving and a YPT of 9.2 with a YPC of 11.87. Worthy had a lot of success with designed touches on screen plays but that is also Rice's bread and butter and Rice has established himself in the offense and has chemistry with Mahomes already. Andy Reid is notorious for easing rookies in and the playbook is difficult for them to grasp. Worthy faces a huge learning curve and big competition. I haven't even touched on Hollywood Brown but know he's there. I have bias having him on my fantasy team but I don't think he will be a long term member of the organization as it's just a one year deal. Once again though, as long as he's on the field he's wildly divisive for fantasy but still a contributor and asset for the team that they wanted. Anything else I fear will just be me wishing into existence a good season with no injuries but be advised he's a capable receiver and more proof Worthy will have to wait to erupt. Further complicating the situation would be Mecole Hardman is still there, Noah Gray is there, Justyn Ross, and also Skyy Moore. Don't get me wrong I believe all these guys are JAGS currently but the Chiefs receivers outside of tight end Kelce thus far have proven to be a giant headache. As a former Juju manager, I know the pain of the KC carousel far too well. It's what makes them a great real life team to be able to trust these mid receiving options, but is not good for fantasy historically. These guys all have the experience and familiarity edge over Worthy right now.
The Jameson Williams Comparison It's great that he's been compared in scouting reports such as the one done in Bleacher Report to Jameson Williams. It's also fucking terrifying. The first comparison is the 40 times. Jamo at 4.25 while Worthy broke the record at 4.21. Speed kills, just ask Rashee. While 40 times are sexy and get the plums going, it's not a sure fire and reliable way to predict NFL success. The other Jamo comparisons are backhanded compliments in my opinion. Jamo is entering year three in the NFL and thus far has been a complete non-factor in fantasy. Year 1 was a wash for injury, year 2 was abbreviated due to a gambling suspension, and finally entering year 3 owners such as myself MAYBE, just maybe, finally have something to look forward to based on drastic improvement made by Jamo. How does this affect Worthy? A few ways. Both men have had issues catching the ball and relying on body catches. This can be gotten away with in college as defenses in most divisions are nowhere near NFL caliber. This is where the speed shines for these men and leaves them wide open with no defender around. Another issue. In the NFL where every starting athlete is elite at the position and the best around in American football, you can't capitalize on lax defense and your speed to carry you. Creating separation through route running and catching with your hands displaying a large catch radius are all hallmarks of very promising wide receiver talent in the NFL that will translate to fantasy football points, why we play the game. Jamo infamously had these problems to start year 2 and is just now to a point where Dan Campbell is now conveying trust in him through these marked improvements. Worthy has these same problems in his college tape and faces an uphill battle in adjusting to the pace and physicality of the NFL game just as Jamo did. While he currently isn't injured like Jamo was to start year 1, in football anything can happen and suspensions can come out of nowhere also. Worthy struggles against press coverage too. In the NFL he won't always be able to consistently shrug off cornerbacks and in college we have already seen what happens when they do press him as he cannot fight through contact. Until he bulks up at 165 pounds he is very small and I know Tank Dell and Devonta Smith exist but their talent is honestly a lot better overall in many ways than Worthy. Worthy also relying on this speed is a mixed bag as bulking up with muscle could take some of that away and running the 40 like he did in underwear is a lot different than full pads and contact with defenses charging you down. He's a great field stretcher and deep threat but more than likely at this moment in time all that is going to do is just make Kelce, Rice, Brown, etc more open and potentially open up lanes for Pacheco. Pacheco is another offensive juggernaut on that team due for targets and work we haven't even addressed. Used in this way thus far we once again have Jameson Williams to look to for reference. In two seasons the highest point total in half ppr Jamo has ever managed in games with meaning for fantasy mangers is 13.30. This was week 6 against Tampa Bay. This leads to an extremely touchdown reliant boom or bust player who will sting you more often than not this early in their career. Once again they are different players and human beings on different teams but the comparisons are striking and concerning. Going into year 3 it's still no guarantee Jamo ever proves to be useful in fantasy and you have to be honest with yourself and wonder if this is what will become of Worthy and if you are ready to wait for him on your team. If you are I'm proud of you but only in dynasty. In redraft this year I think he's an easy fade.
Conclusion
Xavier Worthy is a very raw prospect entering the NFL right now. He is a great ball of clay to work with but he is not coming in with much polish at the moment. It's going to take a lot of reps, practice, dedication, persistence, etc. to clean up his drops, find a balance between his speed and strength, develop a chemistry with Mahomes, work on his hands and catch radius, and polish the route running. Yet another issue is his frequent lack of effort on routes where the ball is clearly not going to him. This results in a laundry list of tasks that have to be checked off before he can reliably be started in fantasy lineups and have a significant impact. As a result I'm fading in redraft at the moment. In dynasty he's a great dart throw with your last pick or second to last depending on league size, startup, the list goes on you're smart you get the idea. I just think it's going to be a tree you plant and have to wait to enjoy the shade of if not end up being a tree someone else enjoys the shade of. Thank you for reading and I tried to come up with arguments you have not previously heard such as the Rashee Rice suspension not happening yet.
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