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Premier League Best Bets (Feb. 19 - 21)




Welcome back to another installment of Premier League Best Bets. We had some mixed success this past weekend but are looking to improve with a fun slate of midweek matches.


Recap:

 

It was an exciting weekend of action in the Premier League: Manchester City drew 1-1 with Chelsea, only securing one point in the title race instead of 3; Liverpool won easily over Brentford to extend their lead at the top of the table, but lost 3 players in the first half due to injury; Burnley and Sheffield United continued to struggle, each losing 0-5 at home to Arsenal and Brighton, respectively.

 

As for our bets, we went 1-2 for the main plays, won our fun and frisky bet, and went 2-1 for the “Around the Grounds” section.

 

Manchester United gave us the win over Luton Town, despite an exciting and nervy game where Luton looked dangerous, and hit our “both teams to score no draw” bet thanks to a Luton goal.

 

Newcastle and Bournemouth was a tough and feisty game as predicted, where Newcastle again had to claw back from behind to salvage a draw.

 

For our Liverpool/Spurs parlay, Liverpool cruised to the easy win but Spurs looked the worse team against Wolves and were punished by Wolves counter-attack.

 

Around the Grounds, Barcelona and FC Copenhagen won their matches but AC Milan lost in a dramatic fashion, being down two goals and a man due to a red card, came back to tie 2-2 around 90-minute mark, then looked like they would get the 3rd goal, only to be punished with two late goals against them.

 

Midweek Matches:

 

We still have one more regular match for the “weekend” kicking off this afternoon, but this week we also have a few make-up matches that were postponed for various reasons earlier in the season, giving us a match on Tuesday afternoon and on Wednesday afternoon. These matches are somewhat difficult to find decent betting value, but there are a few bets I like for these matches.

 

Pick #1: Crystal Palace Win or Draw +110 (Feb. 19, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):

 

This is a bit of an ugly one for a lot of reasons. Everton are facing a 10-point deduction in the league for alleged breaches to financial fair play rules and have generally been on a downward trajectory over the past few seasons. They had a decent run in December but have struggled to win in January and February, although they’ve managed some decent draws.

 

Crystal Palace are also a team struggling right now, having only won 2 of their last 15 games across all competitions. Their manager (head coach), has been tipped to resign and just announced his resignation this morning, ahead of the game this afternoon. Crystal Palace have already signed a contract with Oliver Glasner as their next manager. Often, clubs can get a bit of a boost when a new coach comes in as players look to impress the new boss. Today’s match will be managed by a caretaker manager, so it may be too early for a true new manager bump, but I’m counting on this squad uniting and putting in a decent performance.

 

Further, these clubs have played each other a lot recently, playing in the Premier League in November and an FA Cup match that ended 0-0 in early January, requiring a replay in mid-January, where Everton won 1-0.

 

Bottom Line: This is an ugly one because Palace haven’t beat Everton in their last 6 meetings (2D, 4L), but I think the managerial news may help give Palace the boost they need to at least manage a draw.

 

Feeling lucky? Give Crystal Palace Moneyline +425 a go for a quarter or half unit.

 

Pick #2: Manchester City / Brentford Both Teams to Score +100 (Feb. 20, 2024; 2:45 p.m. EST):

 

Another nervy pick for our second bet as I don’t often bet against Manchester City and will often bet on them to keep a clean sheet (shutout) in order to find greater value in betting on them. I originally looked at taking City to keep a clean sheet at -115, however, Brentford have a knack of getting a goal, even if they don’t win the game. Brentford have played 24 Premier League matches this season and have scored at least one goal in 20 of them, including their recent game against Manchester City, almost all of them without star striker Ivan Toney, who is recently back from a gambling suspension.

 

Bottom Line: City are the better side and should win the game after drawing with Chelsea at the weekend, but you just can’t deny Brentford’s ability to score a goal in just about every match they play.

 

Looking for a goalscorer prop? Erling Haaland had numerous chances but couldn’t get the goal at the weekend (much to the dismay of Fantasy Premier League players!) and will look to change that this week. Perhaps try Haaland first or last goalscorer -110 or Haaland to score 2+ at +200.

 

Pick #3: Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer -135 (Feb. 21, 2024; 2:45 p.m. EST):

 

Mohamed Salah is back in the Liverpool team and is firing already. He came in off the bench to replace the injured Diogo Jota, who had been the bright spark for Liverpool as of late, to score and assist. Liverpool play Luton Town, who gave United a run for their money this weekend, but are a team Liverpool should be able to beat in order to continue extending their lead at the top of the table.

 

FanDuel has this line at -135 whereas DraftKings currently has Mo Salah anytime goalscorer at -225. If you only use DraftKings, however, the SGP line is set at -170 so you may be able to find value in an SGP for Liverpool to win and Salah to score at -150.

 

Bottom Line: The lines for this one on DraftKings are a bit all over the place, so take it at -135 on FanDuel or take it as part of an SGP in DraftKings.

 

Around the Grounds:

 

Inter Milan Moneyline -130 (Champions League)

Arsenal Moneyline -145 (Champions League)

RB Bragantino -110 (Copa Libertadores)

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