It's that time of the year where we have nonstop football everyday of the week! So of course we have some Tuesday night action, and even though it is not the best slate, it is still so much better than betting MLB!
Games and Lines:
Louisiana Tech (3-4) @ Middle Tennessee State (1-5)
MTSU -3, o/u 54
Liberty (5-0) @ Jacksonville State (5-1)
APP St -5.5, o/u 61.5
Coastal Carolina (2-3) @ Appalachian State (3-2)
Liberty -7, o/u 58.5
LA Tech/MTSU Prediction:
If you remember from last week's post, we got screwed by Middle Tennessee State. They went up 23-6 at half and ended up losing 45-30. It was sickening, and because of that, I can't bet MTSU even though they are probably the right side in this game.
One thing that did stick with me from that game, is that MTSU has the ability to put up points! They also make a crap load of mistakes and their defense is way below average.
LA Tech, even though they have the better record, is not the better team. They have beat the bottom feeders in the league and then lose to anyone that is competitive. So, they will probably lose tonight, but they also like to score and play zero defense.
With two frustrating defensive teams, that also lack discipline on offense, we have to go with the over in this game. I expect this to be a back-in-forth shootout, with multiple turnovers and big yardage plays. I may take a small bet on MTSU even though I don't forgive them yet.
BET: LA Tech/MTSU o54
Lean: MTSU -3
I have yet to win a Jacksonville State game this year. I can't believe that Rich Rod is still pissing me off after all these years. I once again will be fading the gamecocks tonight, who are a joke of a team and should not be 5-1.
They are playing Liberty, who is the undisputed best team in the conference, and this should, on paper be an ass kicking. Liberty has been taking care of business, but had an ugly game last week against one of the worst teams in the conference and the country, Sam Houston State. This poor performance, along with JKST having their last game handed to them on a silver platter by MTSU, is the reason this line isn't at -13.5 or higher.
There is great value in Liberty here, but the best value is actually a first half bet. JKST's last two games have been disgusting and they have started off extremely slow to terrible opponents. Both of these games, JKST fell by 14 or more points in the first half.
They not face the best team in the conference who starts every game off hot. The first half spread is Liberty -3.5, and that is the biggest steal on the night. Liberty is going to score 24 points, and JKST may get to 10. Should be the easiest sweat free bet, but just remember, JKST has ruined me the last three weeks.
Bet: Liberty -3.5 1H (2 UNITS)
Lean: Liberty -7
Coastal/APP St Prediction:
The best matchup by far tonight with two perennial powerhouses in the Sun-Belt Conference. This should be a very exciting and competitive game despite the spread being 5.5.
The biggest thing to note about these two opponents, is that the home team has won the last 4 matchups dating back to 2019. They have also been pretty even teams and the last 3 games have been competitive.
Coastal Carolina is having a disappointing year. Grayson McCall has been playing way below average and I'm sure a lot of Coastal fans are upset about his and the teams performances the past 5 weeks. McCall still puts up big numbers, but his turnovers have been the issue. That could stay true tonight as he faces a gritty App State defense.
App State has fallen to two opponents this year: UNC in overtime, and soon to be ranked Wyoming by 2-points. App State plays extremely well at home, and has taken the identity of being one pf the biggest upset teams in the country the past couple years. They are lacking that huge underdog win this year, but they are still a dangerous and difficult team to beat.
The winner of this game is going to be App State, there's not a doubt in my mind. However, 5.5 is a scary spread and may be difficult to cover in a competitive game that I am predicting. Since I'm so high on App State, I will take them on the spread, but obviously like the ML Better.
Bet: App State -5.5
*** I have taken App State ML parlayed with Ethan's biggest NFL bet of the year***