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UFC 289 Odds and Analysis

UFC 289
Credit to the UFC and Endeavor group

UFC 289 takes place Saturday, June 10th, 2023, in Vancouver, Canada. While the UFC has certainly had better events there are still some intriguing matchups with enticing odds I’m going to discuss below. If you’re new to Mixed Martial Arts bets I encourage you to reference my previous article which is an introduction to betting on MMA. In it I briefly give a crash course on the aspects of MMA betting that make it different from most sports especially team-based ones. As always, thank you for your support and reading.

UFC 289 is headlined by a fight between current UFC women’s bantamweight champion, their women’s 135-pound division, Amanda Nunes, and challenger Irene Aldana. Nunes has absolutely dominated the division and held the belt since winning it from Miesha Tate in July 2016. Her only blemish since then came at the hands of Julianna Pena, who shocked the world with a submission finish of Nunes to become the new champ in December 2021. Since then, Nunes and Pena rematched in July 2022 and Nunes comfortably cruised to a unanimous decision victory over Pena, recapturing her title. Nunes and Pena were supposed to have their 3rd fight on this card, but Pena pulled out May 2nd, 2023, due to a broken rib sustained in training camp. As a result, this is a short notice fight for both Nunes and Aldana. Normally for an Amanda Nunes fight I would not bother placing a bet on the challenger to Nunes but this I’ll make an exception. As of Wednesday, June 7, 2023, DraftKings has Aldana as a plus 260 underdog and Nunes is the favorite at minus 315. What makes me like Aldana in this matchup would be the fact it’s a short notice fight for Nunes who is facing an entirely different opponent she hasn’t fought before. Aldana has had a strange career, frequently missing weight, and losing to opponents most have considered her superior to. Nunes has shown very recently she is not invincible however, and while she has the experience advantage with a record of 22-5 to Aldana’s 14-6, In my eyes that experience comes with a great deal of mileage and damage that leaves Aldana the fresher and more motivated fighter. Every dominant champ’s reign has to come to an end sometime and though Nunes reclaimed her title by beating Pena I’m not so sure this second reign will be as long, and the decline of a champ can be brutal in MMA. For these reasons I’d be comfortable placing a bet on Aldana to have a TKO/KO finish of Nunes at the current DraftKings odds it’s a risky chance that isn’t too farfetched to me.

The last fight on this card with most interesting odds and implications to me would be the co-main event between Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. DraftKings has Oliveira at a plus 120 to Dariush’s minus 140. I think both men are great fighters and Dariush is underrated and overlooked constantly both by MMA fans and pundits, but I’ve got to go with Oliveira on this one at those odds. Known for his strong submissions and superior Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, what a lot of people overlook is that Oliveira often sets up those opportunities with his striking and the power that possesses. He has also had the better strength of schedule, establishing himself off the names of top fighters such as Jim Miller, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and Tony Ferguson. While Darisuh is proving himself and certainly has a future in the division, I think this is Oliveira’s opportunity to rebound from losing his 155-pound lightweight belt to Islam Makhachev in October 2022. I think Oliveira has the fighting style to counter Dariush and the experience edge that leaves me comfortable at current odds or if he becomes even greater of an underdog to place my money on Oliveira. If you’re looking for more specificity, I’d go by a submission finish. These are the most interesting fights on UFC 289 with the most interesting betting odds. Thank you for reading.


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