PAIN. After breaking the 2-2 mold with a 3-1 weekend, we regressed heavily last week and went 0-4. This brings our record to 11-13 on the season, we have some work to do. While I wasn't crazy about the board last week, I felt good about the plays that I gave out and stand by them, however, they were all losers. I'm looking to right our wrongs from last week and like this slate much better.
HOU +7 -120 @ CIN
I am once again fading the Cincinatti Bengals for my best bet this week and full disclosure, fading the Bengals has been a losing proposition over the last 2 seasons. That being said, I feel this is a terrible spot for them and I think Houston has a shot to win this one outright. The Texans are off of a last second victory over the Buccaneers that likely saved their season. This team sits at 4-4 and still has hopes of making the playoffs after the come from behind win. While I think some teams would come out flat after a win like that, I think that win will motivate Houston and will make them think they are better than what they really are. This team has all the confidence in the world heading into their matchup with the Bengals and I think that will serve them well. The Bengals, on the other hand, are in a horrible spot in this one. Cincy is off back to back huge wins over the 49ers and the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Not only that but look who is on deck for the Bengals, they have a Thursday Night matchup on deck vs their division rival Baltimore Ravens, followed by another divisional game vs the Steelers. This is a classic flat spot, breather spot, and sandwich spot all looped into one. The Bengals are going to want to get in and get out of this game with a victory and I think we see them get caught looking ahead on Sunday. While fading the Bengals is never fun, I think it is profitable this weekend. I look for Houston to win this game outright in a 23-20 type of game. I'll gladly take the points with Houston.
Honorable Mention: SF -3 -115 @ JAX
PSU +4.5 -110 vs MICH
My best bet on Saturday in college football is the Penn State Nittany Lions +4.5 at home against Michigan. This game is tough to predict as it will be the first big test of the year for Michigan and just the second test for Penn State. Michigan has played a cupcake schedule thus far and, to no surprise, has dominated each and every game. PSU, on the other hand, has played an extremely weak schedule as well outside of their matchup with Ohio State, a game in which they lost. If this game is so hard to predict, why is it my best bet? There are two reason's why I really like Penn State on Saturday. PSU should be extremely motivated in this game as it is a true must win game. They will be at home and I think we see a huge effort from them. As I mentioned above, they already have a loss to Ohio State this season and they cannot afford to lose to Michigan. They need to win on Saturday and hope that Michigan can beat Ohio State in the final game of the season in order to force a 3 way tie atop the Big 10. These teams are fairly equal in my opinion and I think getting 4.5 points with the home team is just too many in a game with this big of implications. While this game means a lot to Michigan as well, their biggest game of the season is still in front of them when they play Ohio State. If they were to lose this weekend, they still have their destiny in their own hands if they can beat their rival buckeyes. Lastly, I have seen that the most public bet side of the week in college football is the Michigan Wolverines. It is never a good sign when the public loads up on one side, especially when the line moves against them. This line opened at Michigan -7 and despite all the love for the Wolverines from the public, were seeing this line come all the way down to -4.5. I will gladly fade the public this week and play on the team at home, catching points, in a must win spot. Give me the Nittany Lions to win a close one in what looks to be a 24-23 type of game.
Honorable Mention: UCF +2.5 vs OKST