We cannot seem to break through and have a winning or losing week as we once again split our article plays last weekend going 2-2. We started off hot with a college football sweep, however, we gave it all back on Sunday by going 0-2. I liked a lot of dogs in the NFL last weekend but unfortunately chose the wrong 2 to write about, as both the Colts and Buccaneers lost by double digits. After 3 weeks, our article plays sit at 6-6 and we are in desperate need of a breakthrough week. Let's get it this week and get the ball rolling on some profit.
IND +3.5 vs CLE -110
You've gotta have a short memory in this business. I am jumping right back on the Colts for my NFL best bet this weekend. I liked the Colts in an underdog roll against the Jaguars last weekend but unfortunately there were too many turnovers from Minshew and the Colts offense to keep that one competitive. I know a lot of people want on the Browns, and why wouldn't they? They just beat the best team in the NFL in the 49ers, and did so with a backup QB. Now they get their starting QB back and just have to cover a 3.5 point spread against the Colts? Seems too good to be true, and I think it is. This is a major flat spot for the Browns here. Like I said, they are coming off of a game where they defeated the previously undefeated 49ers who many thought of as the best team in the NFL. I was on the Browns last weekend and loved that spot for them. It was a spot that is extremely similar to the one the Colts find themselves in this week. If you've been following my plays for the last year or so, you know I love betting on teams the first game that their star player is out, this is referred to as the "Injured Player Theory". The second part of that theory is playing against teams the first game that their star player returns, that being Deshaun Watson for the Browns this weekend. The Browns just handled the Niners, watched the Colts lose to the Jags by 17, and now get their starting QB back. They are going to waltz into Indianapolis and think they just have to show up to win the football game, and that is when teams get caught. The Colts will be focused at home to get a win this week and I think they do it. When the Colts weren't turning the ball over last week, they had success moving the ball against the Jags defense. While the Browns have the best defense in the NFL, I still think the Colts will be able to find success and put up enough points in this one. Offensively, I think the Browns come out flat and struggle to put up many points in Watson's return. Lastly, I am seeing over 70% of the public are on the Browns this weekend which is never a good sign. Give me the Colts to win this one outright in a 20-13 type of game.
Honorable Mention: LAC +5.5 -110
MSU +24.5 -110
We are looking into the BIG 10 matchup between Michigan and Michigan State for our College Football best bet this weekend. I am backing my Michigan State Spartans plus the points in East Lansing this weekend, and while this is a homer pick, there are many reasons why I am choosing to back the Spartans this weekend. These 2 teams could not be further apart this season as Michigan State is in complete shambles sitting at 2-4, meanwhile Michigan is a perfect 6-0 and are the National Championship favorites. Sparty lost key players in the transfer portal this offseason including QB Peyton Thorne and WR Keon Coleman. They also parted ways with Head Coach Mel Tucker midway through the season amid a sexual abuse case. Despite the struggles they have faced this year, there is no doubt that they have had this game circled, as they do every season, and they are going to show up to play on Saturday night. While Michigan is lightyears better than Iowa and Rutgers, MSU was able to hang with both of those teams and easily could've walked away with a win in both games. They blew and 18 point lead to Rutgers last weekend and while many would think losing a game in that fashion would be a crushing blow, the quotes out of the Spartan locker room tell me otherwise. The Spartans should be fired up to host the Wolverines in a night game at their home stadium and I think 24 and a half points is just too many. Michigan has bigger and better games to worry about on their schedule as they still have to play PSU and OSU this regular season. Even though this is a rivalry game, Michigan is going to look to get in and get out with a victory on Saturday night and won't need to run up the score. I look for Michigan to win this game in a 31-13 type game. Too many points for the Spartans at home.
Honorable Mention: Air Force -10.5 -114