Champions League Best Bets #17 (Semifinal 2nd-Leg; May 6, 2025 - May 7, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
1 day ago
4 min read

Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

What a week we had in the Champions League! That Barcelona vs Inter match was some of the most entertaining football you’ll see all year. This is what the Champions League is all about!

PSG took an early lead at the Emirates on Tuesday with a 4th-minute goal from Ousmane Dembélé, who left the pitch with a hamstring injury after 70 minutes. They held that lead for the rest of the match, though Arsenal thought they had equalized early in the 2nd half, with the goal being called offside.

The Barça/Inter match was incredible back-and-forth football, with Inter scoring after only 30 seconds, scoring the fastest UCL semifinal goal in history. Inter went up 0-2, before Barça got 2 back in the 1st half. Inter took the lead again at 64 minutes, with a long-range Raphinha strike hitting the crossbar and bouncing off Inter’s keeper and into the goal.

Our Best Bets went 1-2, winning on PSG to Win Either Half, losing on both player props. While the Hakimi shots bet was close to hitting and he was getting in great positions, the Çalhanoğlu bet was off the mark, as Barça dominated possession and he held a defensive position when Inter were in attack.

Upcoming Matches:

Now comes the 2nd legs.

Tuesday brings us Inter Milan hosting Barcelona at the San Siro. I think this is the more interesting of the two matchups and I’ll be rooting for the winner of this tie to win the final.

On Wednesday. PSG host Arsenal at the Parc des Princes, trying to hold onto their one-goal lead.

All matches kick off at 3:00 p.m. EST and are shown in the States on Paramount+.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Raphinha (Barcelona) to Score or Assist +100 (May 6, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my first Best Bet, I’m backing Raphinha to get a goal or assist against Inter Milan.

The Ballon d’Or hopeful is having an incredible season, with 31 goals and 22 assists in all competitions this season, including 12 goals and 8 assists in 13 UCL matches.

What’s more, Lewandowski is set to start on the bench, meaning Raphinha and Lamine Yamal will be the likely creators. Inter may be without Lautaro Martinez in attack, so Barça will feel more comfortable to create their own waves of attack without the threat of Martinez on the counter.

As a favorite for the Ballon d’Or, a goal to send Barcelona to the UCL final would certainly help his odds.

Pick #2: Achraf Hakimi (PSG) 2+ Shots +160 (May 7, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

I’m running right back, no pun intended, to a bet we lost last week, PSG right back Achraf Hakimi to record 2 shots.

Hakimi only averages 1.46 shots per 90 in Ligue 1, but has been shining in Champions League, where he’s averaged 2.06 shots per 90. He had 2 in the 1st-leg against Aston Villa, then 3 in the 2nd-leg, one of which was a goal. He had 3 in PSG’s loss to Nice before the UCL 1st-leg, then only managed 1 in the last match against Arsenal.

He was rested for PSG’s most recent match, so he should be fit and eager to shoot at home.

Despite only having one shot in the 1st-leg, Hakimi often found himself in a central position in the box or near the top of the box, waiting for a pass to come his way. If he keeps up the same positioning, I expect him to get 2 shots at home.

Pick #3: PSG Moneyline +110 (May 7, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my last Best Bet, I’m backing PSG to get the outright win in front of their home fans.

PSG come into this match with a 1-goal advantage, so they could simply hold on and get a draw. However, this is one of the best attacking teams in Europe.

PSG have already clinched the Ligue 1 title, going undefeated until they clinched the title. Since then, they’ve lost both of their League 1 matches. It’s clear that this Champions League campaign is currently the sole focus for PSG, as they look to win their first UEFA Champions League trophy.

Arsenal have similarly been dropping in their domestic league, with only 1 win in their last 5 matches, including a loss at the weekend at home to Bournemouth. However, Arsenal have more at stake in the Premier League, currently sitting in second, only 3 points in front of Man City.

Arsenal are still without a recognized striker and, while they’ve played superbly this UCL campaign, I think PSG at home will be too much for them. PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé is questionable, though he was in training on Monday and looks set to play some part in this match.