Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
Matchweek 3 saw a repeat of last season’s final as Real Madrid played Dortmund, beating them this time around 5-2.
It was a good week for English clubs, with all 4 English clubs (Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester City), all getting wins and clean sheets.
A big matchup between Barcelona and Bayern Munich saw the hosts, Barca, continue their dominance under Hansi Flick.
We finally had a strong week of betting, winning all 3 best bets. We also did well as far as bonus bets, with the only loss being Bayern Munich to Win Either Half.
Upcoming Matches:
This matchweek is loaded with big matches, including Liverpool hosting Bayer Leverkusen, Real Madrid hosting AC Milan, Inter Milan hosting Arsenal, and PSG hosting Atletico Madrid.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Manchester City Moneyline -125 (Nov. 5, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our first bet we’re backing Manchester City on the road to Sporting CP.
This match now has some added hype after the news that Sporting CP coach Ruben Amorim will be the next manager of Manchester United, taking over during the next international break.
Manchester City have injuries to key players and keep picking up more injuries, however, they have the depth and the tactics to still go out and get the win. They just lost in the EPL to Bournemouth, a loss from which they’ll look to bounce back immediately. Haaland has been in a bit of a goalscoring slump, but always seems to come alive in the Champions League, scoring two in their last UCL match.
Sporting have been off to an incredible start to the season, without losing since their loss to Porto in the Super Cup back in early August. Their only draw came in the UCL to PSV Eindhoven, winning their other two UCL matches against Lille and Sturm Gratz.
Despite the solid run of form, this is the biggest challenge this Sporting side has faced this season, right after their coach agreed to a deal with the other Manchester Club. It would be a fairytale for Amorim to beat City in this match, but the fairytales seem to always go the way of Man City and I expect nothing less this week.
Edit: this line jumped to +115 about an hour before kickoff, so I doubled down at these odds as well.
Pick #2: Shakhtar Donetsk / Young Boys Under 2.5 Goals +115 (Nov. 6, 2024; 12:45 p.m. EST):
Admittedly, these are two clubs who I do not watch routinely in their domestic leagues. However, both of these sides have yet to score in the UCL this season, so I’ll be taking the under here.
Shakhtar Donetsk currently sit 3rd in the Ukrainian Premier League and, although they’ve been regularly scoring at least a goal per game elsewhere, they’ve yet to score in the UCL (against Bologna, Atalanta, and Arsenal). They’re the home side for this match, but they play all of their UCL home matches in Germany this season due to the war, so I’m not giving much weight to any home field advantage.
Young Boys looked good in UCL qualifying, knocking off Galatasaray, but have struggled in Europe and domestically since then. They currently sit 10th of 12 in the Swiss Super League. Their UCL opposition has been tough (Aston Villa, Barcelona, and Inter Milan), however, they aren’t seeming to do much better domestically either, struggling to score goals on a consistent basis.
This should be one of the easier UCL matches for either side, but with the lack of goals on big European nights this season, I’ll take the under.
Pick #3: Atalanta to Win Either Half -120 (Nov. 6, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our final bet we are backing an Atalanta team off a resounding win at Serie A leaders Napoli over the weekend.
Although they’ve managed 2 scoreless draws this season in the UCL, they’ve scored plenty of goals in the Serie A, leading the league in goals, and scored 3 in their other UCL match against Shakhtar Donetsk. They haven’t lost in 8 matches and are definitely in form.
Stuttgart, their opponents, have been in decent form as of late, getting 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 matches, including a 0-1 win on the road to Juventus last time out in the UCL. Although Italian clubs are often known for defensive resilience, Atalanta are consistently scoring more than Juventus and should be a tough test for Stuttgart with the current form and hype surrounding Atalanta.
Bonus:
A few other bets I like this week are:
AS Monaco Moneyline +155
Liverpool Moneyline -140
Inter Milan Moneyline +155
PSG Moneyline -135
Season Record:
Best Bets: 4-5
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