Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Week 2 of EPL action brought us plenty of excitement with 32 goals across the weekend, 11 more than week 1.
Brighton again looked sharp at home to Man United, Tottenham beat Everton 4-0, Man City thumped Ipswich Town with a Haaland hat trick, Chelsea turned it on in the second half to win 2-6 at Wolves with a Madueke hat trick, and Arsenal finally beat Aston Villa.
As for our bets we faired okay. To see where we placed our money last time around, see the week 2 article here.
Our Best Bets were 2-1, winning Arsenal and Fulham, losing Crystal Palace. Our player prop did not hit but we hit our Bonus Bet of Chelsea moneyline.
Across the Globe we did a bit worse, going 2-4 in that section. My read on Italy’s Serie A must not be great, as we lost both Serie A bets (our second week losing on AC Milan). Both MLS/Leagues Cup reads were off as well, although those were close with late goals deciding those bets. We won Fenerbahçe and AIK Solna.
We’re 0-2 on the season for Crystal Palace (EPL) and AC Milan (Italy; Serie A) bets and, although I’m still relatively optimistic about these clubs, perhaps they still need some time to figure things out so I’ll be holding off on them until after the international break following this weekend’s matches.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 3 opens Saturday morning at 7:30 a.m. EST with a big match, Arsenal hosting high-flying Brighton. There are 5 matches in the 10:00 a.m. EST window, including all 3 newly-promoted clubs, and West Ham hosting Man City in the afternoon.
On Sunday, Newcastle host Spurs and Chelsea host Palace at 8:30 a.m. EST before the big match of the weekend, Manchester United hosting Liverpool, a rivalry between the two most successful clubs in the country’s history.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Brentford Moneyline -130 (Aug. 31, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
I love the line at which this bet is currently placed and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move a bit before kickoff. Brentford looked good at home in the first week and, although they struggled against Liverpool in week 2, they still looked good in the first half and had some decent saves from their goalkeeper against a top Liverpool attack.
They’ve been without star striker Ivan Toney, who looks set to be transferred to Saudi, but Wissa and Mbuemo have stepped up to score the goals in his absence, with the team scoring 13 goals in the last 6 matches, although 4 of those matches were preseason friendlies.
Southampton, on the other hand, seem to be struggling to adapt to life back in the EPL. They lost their first match to Newcastle despite a Newcastle red card at 28 minutes, forcing them to play down a man for over an hour, yet they still scored short-handed against Southampton. In their second match, at home, they managed 65% of the possession, but only had 1 shot on target and an expected goal value of .14, compared to their opponents who had 35% possession and 2.45 xG.
Both clubs played midweek in the EFL Cup and won their matches, although both clubs rested multiple starters. Southampton secured a 3-5 win over Cardiff, who currently sit last place in the second tier of English soccer and put out a weaker lineup. I think they’ll find their next match will not come quite so easily away at Brentford.
Feeling lucky? Southampton are one of only two clubs who have yet to score a goal this season (along with Everton), so I’ll dabble with Brentford Clean Sheet +175.
Pick #2: Aston Villa Moneyline -130 (Aug. 31, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
I like this next Best Bet for a couple of reasons.
First, Aston Villa have looked great to start the season. They won away at West Ham and then looked dangerous in their loss to Arsenal, managing more shots and a higher expected goal value in the loss. Even in preseason they faced tough opponents and either won or looked solid in the loss.
Morgan Rogers, Leon Bailey, and Amadou Onana all have the potential to spark creativity and create goals or assists for this exciting Villa side, while Ollie Watkins just needs to finish his chances.
Second, Villa will get rest while Leicester (their opponents) played in the EFL Cup on Tuesday. Although only 3 of their typical first-11 started in the 4-0 win over 4th tier team Tranmere Rovers, they’ll still have an atypical schedule this week while Villa can focus on solely the weekend’s match.
Pick #3: Tottenham Moneyline +150 (Sep. 1, 2024; 8:30 a.m. EST):
Similarly to the logic behind the Villa bet, our final Best Bet is backing Tottenham to win up at Newcastle after Newcastle played at Nottingham Forest on Wednesday in the EFL Cup.
Newcastle had notable starters Isak and Joelinton play the full 90 minutes plus penalties in their win over Forest in the EFL Cup, while Sandro Tonali came back for his first game following a betting ban and looked sharp.
Newcastle is a far trip from London and Tottenham have struggled there in the recent past, losing their last two games 4-0 and 6-1 at St. James’ Park, a historically tough place at which to play. However, this week they’ve had the time to prepare for a Newcastle team that have secured relatively lackluster results against weaker teams so far in the EPL (1-1 draw with Bournemouth; 1-0 win over Southampton).
It will be a tough test for both teams and Tottenham may yet be without new striker Solanke, though they did not need him last week in their 4-0 rout of Everton.
Looking to play it safe? Give yourself two halves to win with Tottenham to Win Either Half -155.
Bonus:
Bournemouth Moneyline +155
Bournemouth play Everton, who are 0-2 on the season, scoring 0 goals and conceding 7. Each of these clubs played in the middle of the week in the EFL Cup, with Everton winning against a 4th tier team while using a few starters and Bournemouth losing to West Ham but resting most of their top players.
Bournemouth just signed a new keeper in Kepa Arizzabalaga on loan from Chelsea so perhaps he starts this weekend.
Manchester City to Win to Nil +160
This might be a nervy bet as City haven’t kept a clean sheet yet this season and will play away to a new-look West Ham.
The main reason I like this bet is the logic of the midweek EFL Cup. Man City got the rest and West Ham played a strong team in their win against Bournemouth midweek. City will keep possession and should limit the chances for West Ham, who will have tired legs from the start.
United v Liverpool:
Looking for something for the big match on Sunday between Man U and Liverpool? I saw a stat that the aggregate score between these two over their last 10 Premier League meetings is 26-7 in favor of Liverpool, so I may dabble on Liverpool Moneyline -115, but will more likely look to dabble on player props closer to kickoff.
Across the Globe:
Inter Miami Moneyline + 150 (USA; MLS) or take To Win Either Half at -130.
Minnesota United to Win Either Half -110 (USA; MLS)
Borussia Dortmund Moneyline -125 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Bayer Leverkusen Moneyline -130 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Marseille Moneyline -110 (France; Ligue 1)
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