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MLB Player Props 5/20

Aaron Judge about to make contact on another home run
By: Lachlan Cunningham, Getty Images

This past Wednesday was a tough scene. Ranger Suarez gave me a slight scare allowing two runs, but luckily they were both unearned. Carlos Carrasco's line was set at 5.5 hits allowed, but I played it safe with 5+ hits instead. He proceeded to allow five hits exactly. However, Bryan Woo was a dangerous prop and that is what ultimately cost me the sweep. Woo looked like Nolan Ryan for the first five innings, garnering five easy strikeouts. After he had sunk the perfect slip, he came back down to earth and only got one more out. 

Today is a new day and the past is in the past. There are 10 games after 3 PM, which gives me plenty of games to work with. Here are the three props for May 20th. 

Pablo Lopez Over 17.5 Outs (-175)

The Minnesota Twins started the year on a roll it felt like. However, they are now in the midst of a miniature slump. They had to face the New York Yankees last week who just owned them for decades. Pablo Lopez is the ace for this Twins squad but has a somewhat subpar outing against the Yankees. He allowed 10 hits with 3 earned runs and only 3 strikeouts. Today is the day though that Lopez gets back on track against the Washington Nationals. 

In his last three games, Lopez has hit this over, even with that bad showing against the Yankees. The biggest reason to smash this over though is the cold bats for the Nationals. In the last 15 days, the Nationals are batting a league-worst .196. Their bats are Antarctica freezing right now. They cannot make contact and I think Lopez takes advantage of it. 

Lopez is below the 50th percentile in hard-hit% and barrel%, but the Nationals are the 7th worst and worst in those two categories, respectively. This is a perfect matchup for Lopez and the Twins today. 

Reese Olson 4+ Strikeouts (-160)

Reese Olson had a solid rookie season for the Detroit Tigers last year. However, nobody was talking about Olson and a potential ascension, but here we are. The win-loss record does not matter in this aspect when you look at the other numbers. Olson is commanding a 2.09 ERA (7th best) and a 0.99 WHIP (13th best). He is one of the best young pitchers in baseball but is flying under the radar. 

After his first two starts where he only registered 3 strikeouts, Olson has gotten 4 or more strikeouts in each game since. Today, Olson faces the Kansas City Royals; who he struck out 8 times in their previous matchup. It is a little concerning that the Royals have seen him within the past month, but 4 strikeouts is doable for the young pitcher. The Royals are a good squad this year, but the line is just too low to pass. Take the 4+ strikeouts and do not overthink it. 

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145)

Momentum is a real aspect of sports. You ride the hot hand until it cools off. That is why I am rolling with Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. On May 4th, Judge was batting .209 and got ejected for the first time in his career. Since that ejection, Judge is batting .432 with 7 home runs. He has become his MVP form once again. 

Furthermore, Judge has been hitting this over with ease. Since that ejection, Judge has hit this over in all but two games. He is either hitting a home run or getting walked, while the next set of hitters brings him home. Judge and the Yankees host Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners. Judge is a monster at his home stadium with 7 of his 13 homers being there. In 5 away starts, Logan Gilbert is 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA and has allowed 5 home runs. He is no slouch, but Judge is just too hot to pass up. 

The Yankees are on fire and the best team in the American League. Juan Soto has been excellent. The pitching staff is stellar once again. However, Judge was struggling and he is the focal point of this team. Now with him getting hot, watch out for this Yankees squad. 

2024 MLB Record: 4-2


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