NFL Week 1 - DFS Values & Plays
- Ben Bentley
- Sep 2
- 2 min read
Take advantage of the percentage a player is owned! The higher a player's exposure, the better you have to be at choosing other positions. Try to mix in different exposures to create your own unique lineup. Previous millionaire winners have a total ownership percentage of 100.56% each week, and the range between 75%-125% is recommended to increase your chances of winning.
QB: Baker Mayfield, $6,600 (6.1% Ownership)
Baker Mayfield is set up well for DFS this week, tied to the slate’s highest over/under with Tampa Bay carrying the third-highest implied team total. With Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out, his ownership is being suppressed, creating strong tournament leverage. Atlanta’s defense struggled last season, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game (nearly 25), and Mayfield lit them up for 3 touchdowns in both meetings. While big names like Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels face tougher divisional matchups, Mayfield offers a cheaper, lower-owned option with legitimate upside.
RB: James Conner, $6,100 (8.8% Ownership)
James Conner brings sneaky value this week, as DFS players are overlooking him due to age and fatigue, but that creates an opportunity. Arizona enters Sunday with the second-largest spread in their favor against a Saints team projected to struggle offensively, and with the Cardinals’ defense improved, game script sets up perfectly for Conner. He handled double-digit touches in all but one game last season, and if this game tilts Arizona’s way, Conner could control the pace and deliver strong production at lower ownership.
