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Premier League Soccer Best Bets #16 (May 18-19, 2024):


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Welcome to the final Premier League Soccer Best Bets of the season, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.

 

Recap:

 

Matchweek 37 brought perhaps the last big twists in this EPL season. In the title race, Man City cruised to a 0-4 win at Fulham, then Arsenal managed a 0-1 win at Man United. All eyes then turned to the midweek match where Man City travelled to Tottenham, a historically terrible venue for them, for their game in hand. They beat Spurs 0-2 to stay in the driver’s seat for the final day, needing to win against West Ham to secure the title.

 

Elsewhere, Aston Villa had a clutch comeback thanks to two quick goals from Jhon Duran to secure the 4th place spot, guaranteeing them Champions League football next year, a huge achievement for the club, having not played Champions League equivalent since 1982.

 

Spurs beat Burnley to officially relegate them and Luton failed to secure a result that would help them stay up, now all but doomed for relegation.

 

Chelsea continue to impress and now have surpassed Newcastle into 6th for the last guaranteed European place, with the possibility of overtaking Tottenham for the Europa League spot on the final day.

 

For our bets, we did pretty well, hitting all 3 of our main plays (Spurs/Everton Parlay -115; Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -145; and Chelsea moneyline +105), also cashing our Crystal Palace moneyline +145 bet.

 

My bonus on the United / Arsenal game was all wrong, as none of my picks cashed for that match. United kept it a bit nervy, but not in the way I had hoped.

 

Around the Grounds we went 3-2, hitting Celtic, Anderlecht, and Bayer Leverkusen; while losing on Santos and Godoy Cruz.

 

Upcoming Matches:

 

This is the final matchweek, Super Sunday as they call it. All of the matches kick off at the same time, Sunday at 11 a.m. EST, so that no team has an advantage by knowing the score of a prior match.

 

Man City lead the league by 2 points and play West Ham. Arsenal will need them to drop points in order to have a chance at winning the title. Man City look primed to take the EPL title for the 4th year in a row.

 

There could be a little additional movement in the European places, depending on how Newcastle, Chelsea, and Spurs end up.

 

For the final matchweek of the season, let’s get into our best bets:

 

Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay – Tottenham and Chelsea Moneyline -110 (May 19, 2024; 11:00 a.m. EST):

 

Chelsea are chasing Spurs for the final guaranteed Europa League place. That spot may end up falling to 6th anyways if Manchester United lose the FA Cup Final, but they’ll want to guarantee it at this stage. They’ll also want to ensure they don’t lose 6th back to Newcastle, which could occur if Chelsea lose and if Newcastle win.

 

Chelsea have been looking great, winning their last 4 matches. Their opponent, Bournemouth, have been solid, but with little left for which to play, I think they’ll be lackluster against high-flying Chelsea at home.

 

Spurs have struggled for form as of late, but they play Sheffield who are bottom of the league. Spurs need a win or draw to secure 5th place and I think they’ll look to bounce back to their high-scoring ways against struggling Sheffield.

 

Feeling confident? If you like Man City to get the job done at West Ham, toss that in as well to get to +110. Feeling Arsenal instead? Parlaying them gets to +120. All 4 together gets to +140 if you think they’ll all get the win.

 

Pick #2: Manchester United to Win Either Half -120 (May 19, 2024; 11:00 a.m. EST):

 

Manchester United also theoretically has a chance to get into 6th (although they’d need a ton of goals and a Chelsea loss), or at least have the chance to finish 7th if Newcastle fail to match their result. United had the loss to Arsenal, but then turned it around with a big 3-2 win against Newcastle.

 

Brighton are a good squad that have been in poor form, only winning 2 of their last 10. With some key defenders still injured (for each side) I anticipate chances for United to win at least one of the halves.

 

Pick #3: Fulham Moneyline +120 (May 19, 2024; 11:00 a.m. EST):

 

This is another match where each club is in poor form. Fulham have won only 2 of their last 10 and have managed a few draws.

 

Luton, however, have only won one match in their last 15 and are all but set for relegation. They would need a win and a loss from Nottingham Forest (who play Burnley) and will need to overcome a large goal difference. Although still possible, I think this squad will know it won’t happen and will feel defeated from the start.

 

Fulham have shown bright sparks this season and I think they’ll look to end on a bright spark. They don’t have much for which to play but I still think they’ll get the victory on the road.

 

Around the Grounds:

 

-       Bayern Munich Moneyline +100 (Germany; Bundesliga)

-       FC Cincinnati  Moneyline -120 (USA; MLS)

-       AC Milan +165 Moneyline (Italy; Serie A)

-       Galatasaray Moneyline +125 (Turkey; Super Lig)

-       Boca Juniors Moneyline -115 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)

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