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Premier League Soccer Best Bets #6 (March 16-17, 2024)


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Welcome to another installment of Premier League Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, with the goal of providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.

 

Recap:

 

This was a big weekend in the EPL with an excellent match between top contenders Manchester City and Liverpool ending 1-1, allowing Arsenal to sneak into the top spot. Tottenham Hotspur thrashed Aston Villa to take more control of the top 4 race, which would guarantee a berth into next year’s Champions League. Chelsea finally catch a break and Bournemouth pulled off a 4-3 win after being down 0-3 at halftime against Luton. If you are new to the EPL, now is the perfect time with one of the most exciting title races we’ve seen in a couple years.

 

For our main bets, we were again 2-1. Manchester United had 2 penalties for a comfortable win and Spurs crushed Villa, who had a 65th minute red card and went down to 10 men, giving us a great win at +170 odds. Crystal Palace almost gave us the 3-0 sweep until Luton scored at the last moment, deep in stoppage time, drawing 1-1.

 

Each of my 3 prop bets for the Tottenham match hit with Son and Werner scoring, as well as hitting our “Play it Safe” bet of Spurs to Win or Draw.

 

Around the Grounds (my non-EPL bets) were 1-2, succeeding with Inter Milan but not Atletico Madrid or Leicester City.

 

Upcoming Matches:

 

This gameweek, many matches have been postponed due to the Premier League teams playing in the FA Cup, with only 8 of the 20 teams playing in the EPL. You can catch the FA Cup matches in the States on ESPN+.

 

Here are this weekend’s best bets:

 

Pick #1: Brentford Moneyline +130 (March 16, 2024; 11:00 a.m. EST):

 

Brentford and Burnley are two clubs in a current bad run of form. Brentford have had trouble conceding goals this season, letting in 52 so far, while Burnely have had trouble scoring them as of late, scoring 3 in their last 5 matches. With Burnley seemingly doomed for relegation this season, I’m backing Brentford to get the win and separate themselves a bit from the relegation zone while further cementing Burnley in the bottom 3.

 

Pick #2: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline +110 (March 16, 2024; 1:30 p.m. EST):

 

Fulham and Tottenham are both in solid form at the moment, but Spurs are firing on all cylinders right now. Spurs have a tough run of matches in late April / early May where they’ll play Manchester City, then Arsenal, then Liverpool in succession. They’ll need to win as many games as they can before taking on the 3 current title challengers and keep the pressure on going into that tougher stretch of matches.

 

Fulham should put up a solid fight at home, but Spurs will break them down and overwhelm them with shots and get the victory.

 

Looking for something a little crazier? Dabble on Tottenham to Win from Behind +600. Spurs have won from behind 3 of their 7 matches in 2024, coming back in a 4th to get a draw. Alternatively, if Fulham get an early goal, live bet on Tottenham to win or on Tottenham to win or draw.

 

Pick #3: Aston Villa to Win Either Half -150 (March 17, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):

 

I don’t love this matchup so I’m playing a little safer with this one than the other two bets. Both Villa and West Ham played and won big games in the Europa League and Europa Conference League this Thursday, but both at home, so neither team had big European travel this week.

 

Both sides are in good goalscoring form, but West Ham will rely on the counterattack to take advantage of Villa’s relatively shaky defense while Villa will look to attack. I ultimately like Villa to win, but can see them conceding a draw to West Ham, so I’m counting on them to just win either half.

 

Feeling confident? Try Aston Villa Moneyline +150 or Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer +140, (assuming he starts).

 

Around the Grounds (Non-EPL Bets):

 

Wolves Moneyline -140 (England; FA Cup)

Liverpool Moneyline -130 (England; FA Cup)

Besiktas Moneyline -120 (Turkey; Super Lig)

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