In a clash of the Big Ten titans, the #2 Purdue Boilermakers go head-to-head against the #6 Wisconsin Badgers in the fourth and final top-10 matchup this weekend. The hardwood drama unfolds with Wisconsin playing the role of a somewhat disrespectful home underdog, spotting Purdue a mere 2.5 points. Now, the public seems to be flocking towards a seemingly square play on the total, but as the saying goes, sometimes fortune favors the square. Whether it's Wisconsin's recent stumble against Nebraska or the powerhouse aura of Purdue, there are many factors at play in this electrifying encounter. Stick around as we dissect the game, unravel the best bets, and sprinkle in a long shot worth considering – because on this beautiful Sunday, we're not just watching, we're winning.
#2 Purdue (20-2, 1st in Big Ten, 4-2 on the road) travels to Madison Wisconsin to take on the #6 Wisconsin Badgers (16-5, 2nd in the Big Ten, 11-1 at home).
Best Lines (via Pikkit):
In a pivotal clash that could reshape the Big Ten landscape, the #2 Purdue Boilermakers collide with the #6 Wisconsin Badgers today at 1 pm, with the coveted top spot in the conference standings hanging in the balance. The series history between these basketball titans is as tight as it gets, with Wisconsin holding a slender lead of 21 wins to Purdue's 20 losses. Last year's nail-biter in Madison saw Purdue emerge victorious with a razor-thin 63-61 triumph, setting the stage for another thriller.
Both teams boast top-10 offenses, according to KenPom rankings, with Purdue claiming the coveted #1 spot and Wisconsin not far behind at #7. The contrast intensifies on the defensive end, where Wisconsin showcases the 32nd-ranked defense against Purdue's sturdy 18th position.
As the contenders jockey for the top position in the Big Ten, Wisconsin, with an 8-2 record, trails Purdue by a mere 0.5 games, with the Boilermakers flaunting a 9-2 conference record.
The home-court advantage leans towards Wisconsin, undefeated at the Kohl Center with an impressive 11-1 record. However, the Badgers' lone stumble at home came against Tennessee on November 10th. On the flip side, Purdue carries a 4-2 record on the road, with losses to Nebraska and Northwestern.
Wisconsin enters this crucial contest on the heels of a shocking collapse against Nebraska, adding an extra layer of urgency as they face the relentless Purdue squad. With Michigan looming on the horizon, the Badgers aim to rebound and reclaim their dominance at home.
Meanwhile, Purdue rides a wave of momentum, securing a thrilling overtime revenge win against Northwestern and entering this matchup on a six-game winning streak. The Boilermakers, however, face no respite, hosting Indiana in their upcoming matchup.
It is always smart to look at where the money and bets are coming in on a game. This can help identify a sharp side to hammer, or a public bet to stay away from. Keep in mind that the public does win, so fading the public is not always a guaranteed winner, but in the long run, it seems like a profitable strategy.
Four different sources we will look at for betting splits. It is always a smart idea to get a second opinion because the data these sites pull from can vary.
Betting Splits as of 9 am 2/04:
Wisconsin is getting both the money and bets on the spread according to Pikkit's data, and the over is getting 25% more money than bets.
Vegas Insider has 12% more money than bets coming in on Wisconsin's spread, and has 86% of the bets and 70% of the money on the over.
DraftKings shows just the betting percentage. 39% of the bets are on Wisconsin +2.5, and 72% of the bets are on the over of 146.
Like DraftKings, Action just shows the betting percentage. Wisconsin is getting 58% of the bets on the spread, and the total is getting 86% of the bets.
Betting Analysis and "Sharp" Side
The biggest thing from the betting slips on this game is not the money or betting percentages, it's the line movement. Since starting to write this article, the total has dropped 1 point, despite four different sources showing the bets and the money coming in on the over.
This is reverse line movement and means some very large bets are coming in on the under. Large enough to move the line a whole point! Reverse line movement is a bettor's dream, and it is usually a very profitable idea to follow it, but if you couldn't tell from this article title, sometimes it pays to be square!
As of late, I have been following the sharps, and tracking reverse line movement, and it just hasn't been working. The obvious play has been hitting, and I have been getting ridiculed on both TikTok/Instagram and Twitter. So we are going to take the obvious bet, but here is why.
This is a heated matchup. The winner will take the lead of the Big Ten, and to add onto it, it is a top 10 matchup. I'm not sure how many times these two teams have played both being ranked in the top 10, but it can't be a lot if any.
The intensity and evenness of teams will keep this game close, and probably low-scoring, which is what I'm guessing the big bettor of the under is thinking. The under si going to seem like the play the whole game until this game inevitably goes to OT.
A top 10, massive stake game going to overtime?? I can already picture it. So for that reason, we are getting square, taking the over, and of course, sprinkling in a longshot OT prop!
Game to go to OT (+1260)
*Make sure you line shop for the total. I got it this morning at 146.5, but as I said, since writing this the line has moved drastically. The best odds on the OT prop are on FanDuel.
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