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UFC Fight Night Aspinall VS Tybura


aspinall vs tybura
@UFCEurope

The UFC returns to London, England on July 22nd, 2023 in a great showcase of primarily European talent. The prelim fights start at 11AM CST with the main card starting at 2PM CST so keep this in mind if you plan on tuning in. The card is carried on ESPN+ and like all Fight Night events is not a PPV, if you have access to ESPN+ you can tune in to watch. Looking over the bouts the lineup seems better to me than last weekend's card so let's dive in and examine. As always betting odds are sourced from DraftKings and I use the UFC's matchup statistics to provide data about the fights, thank you for reading and all the support.


MARC DIAKIESE VS: JOEL ALVAREZ

Odds for this are Marc is at +165 and Joel is the favorite at -195. I can't disagree with this and I think Joel will win by submission. My reasoning is as follows, Joel has two submission victories in the UFC already and before making it to the UFC in his pro career he has 15 wins with an astounding 14 of those coming by various submissions. Marc shoots takedowns at a rate of 3.33 on average in 15 minute fights which is what this is scheduled for. His accuracy on these is at 43% and he has demonstrated in previous fights he will shoot takedowns with a quantity over quality mentality and can get sloppy. If he continues with this game plan Joel will not hesitate to make him pay for these shoddy attempts and lock up a sub to secure the victory. Both men are coming off loses, Marc in December 2022 by unanimous decision to the ghost of Michael Johnson and Joel in February 2022 by TKO to hot prospect Arman Tsarukyan. I think Joel gets the win in this fight.


PAUL CRAIG VS: ANDRE MUNIZ

Odds for this are Craig at +185 while Muniz is at -215. I feel the odds should be a little closer with both men employing heavy grappling game plans and both having numerous submission victories. Muniz is touted as the more credentialed and accomplished grappler but his last fight February of this year was a submission loss to Brendan Allen. While Allen is no slouch on the ground, going into the fight everyone thought Muniz would win with ease. This loss proves he isn't invincible in that department and Craig owns 6 submission victories over opponents in the UFC. Craig is coming off a loss to Johnny Walker in January of this year but his takedown defense is at 50% and Muniz attempts 2.95 takedowns on average over 15 minutes. Both men attempt 1.7 submissions over that time and Muniz has takedown defense of 41%. Muniz is more accurate with his takedowns at 36% to Craig's 20% but like the Alvarez/Diakiese fight, I see those takedowns being the downfall of Muniz as he gets caught in one of Paul's numerous submissions.


NATHANIEL WOOD VS: ANDRE FILI

Wood is the favorite at -195 to Fili's +165 underdog status. Both men are coming off wins with both getting the nod by unanimous decision. I think this will be a striking affair as both men look to keep it on the feet and it will go to decision. I'll take Wood for this as he's younger and a better prospect than Fili who has been in the UFC for a while now and continued to float around exactly where he is now in the rankings for years. I think Wood still has a path to development and can ascend in the rankings in the next few years.


MOLLY MCCANN VS: JULIJA STOLIARENKO

With the UFC returning to London of course they have to give Liverpool native Molly McCann one of the most winnable fights possible for her to get her fellow Englishmen excited and primed for the main event. Since last year every time the UFC is in London they will try their hardest to schedule Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett on the card and give them a sacrificial lamb on their roster in their respective decisions to appease the rowdy English baying for blood in the stands. Or in the case of Paddy, watch some poor sap get cardio kickboxed to death as Paddy struggles to finish the popcorn salesman they drug out of bed on short notice to fight him. With Paddy recovering from knee surgery it is up to Molly to lead the English charge on the card. Anyway my hatred for Paddy digresses, Molly is the -205 favorite for a reason and this is because this fight is a lay up for her. Both women are coming off harsh losses but Julija is at 10-8-2 right now while Molly is at 13-5 at least. I think Molly tries to impress her countrymen and wins early in the 1st or 2nd round by KO/TKO.


TOM ASPINALL VS: MARCIN TYBURA

Tom was a freight train running through men's heavyweight from Autumn 2020 up until July last year. He finished 5 opponents in that time frame with his longest fight going until the 2nd round. Impressive finishes with his strikes and submissions in short time came to an end last July in London almost exactly one year ago. Tom faced Curtis Blaydes in the main event of that card and 15 seconds into round one He collapsed screaming in pain holding his knee as Curtis Blaydes was declared the winner by TKO. Tom would discover he had torn his ACL and would get surgery and start recovery shortly after. One of the most promising heavyweight prospects was sidelined for not quite a year and looks to return this Saturday against Tybura. Tybura is the older man by 7 years but has the UFC and overall fight experience. Tom is 12-3 with his last loss before Curtis coming in 2016 while Marcin is 24-7 last losing in 2021 by decision. I would never in my life usually consider the underdog when the odds are this lopsided but I can't resist for this fight. Tom is -475 to Marcin's +380 dog status. Here's why I like Marcin, this is heavyweight and one shot can change anything and everything. Tom is also coming off a serious injury and while 15 seconds isn't a lot of fight footage I was concerned with his aggressive approach that fast against Curtis. Curtis was able to get a good counter in on Tom at one point shortly before the ACL injury and Marcin has experience winning against fast starting KO artists like Tom. Marcin destroyed Greg Hardy when he was the UFC's pet and was winning against legend Derrick Lewis until he was caught by Derrick's patented just stand up jitsu and legendary H-Town H Bomb that saw Lewis walk away with the dub. Point is Marcin is a crafty vet and there's a lot of uncertainty around Tom right now and with odds this lopsided I'm okay with a potential big payout if there's an upset which is possible. Tom could surprise me, but this is too good to pass up with minimal risk. A little bet goes a long way on a fight like this where I'm shocked there is this much discrepancy when Tom is coming off a big injury and long layoff facing his most challenging opponent to date aside from Blaydes.


RECORD SO FAR

Last week I went 2-2 on the Holm card bringing my record to 9-11 at the moment. This week I will make my first appearance on the Bettor in Green podcast for Friday, July 28th so stay tuned. I will be discussing the amazing July 29th PPV for the UFC which will be that Saturday. I will be answering questions from the Bettor Boys and discussing about 9 to 10 fights up and down the PPV that I think are most interesting. Thank you for reading and make sure to like and subscribe.


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