UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot - DFS Plays and Fades
- Ben Bentley
- Oct 9
- 2 min read
Being a premium member pays for itself! Real quick scoring overview: Fighters get .2 points for strikes and sig strikes, +0.03 pts/second of control time, 5 pts for TDs, 5 pts for reversals, and 10 pts for knockdowns. The earlier a fight ends; the more bonus points you receive. With this scoring, hesitant strikers that back up will single handedly sink your roster. I'm looking for wrestlers and guys with knockout power. If you would like access to the entire article, consider joining one of our premium member plans!
Every Lineup Fighter: Charles Oliveira, $7,800, (-102)
Charles Oliveira is an excellent DFS play this week because the data and modeling both point toward hidden upside that the betting market isn’t fully pricing in. While Mateusz Gamrot’s wrestling is elite, Oliveira’s finishing equity remains off the charts — our Monte Carlo model still projects him to win over 70% of simulated outcomes when submissions are given even moderate weight. That means he’s drastically underpriced for his ceiling. Oliveira averages over 2.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes and carries knockout power on the feet, giving him multiple win conditions that score big in DFS formats. Even if Gamrot controls early with takedowns, Oliveira’s ability to reverse and finish from his back keeps his floor safer than most underdogs. At his current salary, “Do Bronx” offers tournament-winning upside and strong leverage against a public that’s overvaluing Gamrot’s wrestling.
