Unfiltered Betting: Women’s +3.5 Week 22 Recap and Outlook

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Grasso wasn't able to pull off the upset or cover last week like we were hoping but our method fight with Shevchenko hit bringing our record to 8-3. The blind betting stayed level for months, but it is now starting to go downhill and is sitting at nearly an 8-unit loss. Of the 47 fights we have covered, only 15 underdogs have won (32%). That is a big-time bummer, but the main purpose of this study was to see if the spread was worth it in women's MMA. However, 26 of those fights went to decision making up 55% of the fights. This allowed for our dogs to have covered in 23 of the fights or 48% of the fights. The units don't look as even, as often times we are getting the spread at negative odds (Shevchenko @ -240 last week).

The big question at this time is, when it does go to decision, how often are the points helping us? Of the 26 fights that went to decision, 19 times we covered giving us a success rate of 73%. With this percentage being so high, our obvious problem is the fact that so many of the underdogs are being finished making the spread a moot point. Of our 47 fighters, 17 of them have been finished. That comes out to Vegas raking up our money in 36% of the fights. It's going to be hard to beat those house odds. This week has no method fights. The biggest likelihood of us winning based on our model, is with Lisboa.

Women's +3.5 Betting Data Table

UFC Fight Night Event 22 of +3.5

Luana Pinheiro +3.5 (-125)

Elise Reed +3.5 (+150)

Tainara Lisboa +3.5 (-190) <- Bet Lisboa NOW on DraftKings!

Blind Units: (-7.9 U) (23-24)

Method Units: (+2.17 U) (8-3)

Over the next few months, I'll be tracking what happens if you blindly bet every spread in the women's divisions. I'll list them before every card and give updates to see if it is a winning strategy. Join me along the journey each week, only available here on bettorgreen.com.

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