Week one of the rebirth of the weekend warriors article picked up similarly to where we left off as I went 2-2, losing both college football plays on Saturday and winning the NFL plays on Sunday. We had a couple of tough losses in college football as Stanford failed to cover as 27 point home underdogs to Oregon, despite being up 6-0 early in the 2nd quarter. That would be all the points they could muster as Oregon won handily, 42-6. The honorable mention on Syracuse ended up not being very close on the box score, however, if you watched that game, it was much closer than what the final showed. A bunch of huge penalties in big situations went against Syracuse to extend drives, as well as losing the turnover battle was enough for Clemson to win and cover in this one. The NFL on the other hand was much better. The Bills covered as 2.5 point favorites with ease while the Rams got up early on the Colts and ultimately won the game in OT. I am looking the right the ship in College Football this week and keep things hot in the NFL. Let's get into the plays.
JAX +5.5 @ BUF (London)
My best bet in the NFL this weekend is the Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 vs the Bills in London. I absolutely love this play as it checks many of the boxes that I look for when looking to make a big play in the NFL. First of all, I am fading the hot. No team is as good or as bad as their best or worst performance, and the Bills are coming off their best performance of the season. I did the same thing last week with this Bills team as I faded the Dolphins coming off of their 70 point performance en route to a winning article best bet. The Bills couldn't have looked any better last time out and it will be extremely difficult for them to duplicate. The spot here is also extremely favorable for the Jaguars as this will be their second London game in as many weeks. The Jags got to stay across the pond and should be fully adjusted to the time change, while the Bills had to travel over this week. Having over a week of getting acclimated in London should be a huge advantage for this Jaguars team. I have had this spot circled since the NFL schedule came out and it is all coming together better than I could've expected. Lastly, the Bills are the most publicly bet side in the NFL this weekend, drawing in more than 80% of the bets. Big red flag when the public is all over one side and the line doesn't move, as this one has remained at 5.5. I look to fade the public often in the NFL and it's pretty simple why. If the public won, Vegas would've been bankrupt ages ago. While all of those reasons put me on the Jaguars, the last thing that get's me over the hurdle is that I believe in this Jaguars team. The Jags had a get-right game last week against the Falcons and I look for that to carry momentum into this one with Buffalo. Jacksonville has played in London more than any other team and I expect them to want to protect their "home turf". I look for the Jaguars to spring the upset in this one, winning outright 27-20.
Honorable Mention: CAR/DET U44-108
Georgia Bulldogs -14.5 vs Kentucky
My best bet in College Football this weekend is on the number one team in the nation, the Georgia Bulldogs. The top ranked Bulldogs are hosting the 20th ranked Kentucky Wildcats in what should be a great Saturday Night football game... or will it? I have reason to believe this game will be a blowout. Both teams enter this ranked SEC matchup at a perfect 5-0 with Kentucky looking more impressive in their first 5 games. The Wildcats have won each of their first 5 games by double digits and are coming off of a dismantling of the 22nd ranked Florida Gators where they won 33-14. A lot of people, including myself, thought Florida would be able to hang better vs the Wildcats. This was not the case as Kentucky got up early and never looked back. On the other hand, Georgia has looked like anything but the top team in the country in their first 5 games. Despite being 5-0 straight up, they are 0-5 against the spread and they struggled in a home game against South Carolina, as well as in a road game against Auburn where they won the game with a late touchdown. The Bulldogs enter this matchup as an undervalued commodity after their early year struggles while Kentucky enters overvalued after their Florida beat down. This is the first matchup that I expect to see a max effort from the Bulldogs and I think they put it all together here. Georgia is the better team and they're the number one overall team for a reason. With each team's current form, there is no doubt in my mind that the value is with Georgia. I look for the Bulldogs to roll to victory in this one in a 42-17 type of game. Lay it with Georgia.
Honorable Mention: Purdue +2.5 @ Iowa