Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
We’re halfway through the EPL season with Liverpool leading the league, now 6 points ahead of 2nd place Arsenal and with a game-in-hand. They’ll look to stay on top while also juggling the Champions League and other FA Cup or EFL Cup matches.
In other news, Ipswich got their first home win of the season, taking down Chelsea 2-0.
Manchester United’s misery continued as they lost 0-2 at home to Newcastle, putting them in 14th, only 7 points above the relegation zone. The blue half of Manchester was finally happy again as Man City snapped a 5-match winless streak by beating Leicester on the road.
It was another poor weekend of betting as well, going 1-2 for Best Bets and 0-3 Across the Globe. It happened in a particularly frustrating fashion as well, with Tottenham, Aston Villa, AC Milan, and Melbourne City all leading at one point of the game, only to concede an equalizer and lose our bet in the process.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 20 kicks off Saturday with Spurs hosting Newcastle and concludes on Monday afternoon with Wolves hosting Nottingham Forest.
Our marquee matchup of the week comes Sunday afternoon as Liverpool host Manchester United, a historic rivalry between the most successful clubs in the country’s history.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Brentford Moneyline +125 (Jan 4, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet, I’m backing Brentford to get back to winning ways against bottom-of-the-table Southampton.
Brentford have really struggled on the road this season, failing to win any of their 9 away matches. If there were ever a team to break that streak against, however, it’s Southampton.
Southampton are winless in 10 matches across all competitions, with their last win coming on November 2, 2024, over 2 months ago.
Southampton have a new coach in Ivan Jurić, who has only been in charge for 2 matches thus far. He faired okay managing smaller clubs in Italy, but recently struggled managing AS Roma, lasting less than 3 months in the job.
While I often support a “New Manager Bump,” Jurić will have a tall order to get a result out of this Southampton team that is struggling for shots and conceding plenty of goals. They’ll likely stop playing out from the back as much and focus more on countering from the wingback position, but they’ll still need goals, and right now I trust Brentford more in that department.
Pick #2: Arsenal Moneyline -120 (Jan. 4, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):
I’m backing another team on the road for my second Best Bet, taking Arsenal to beat Brighton.
I like this bet for a few reasons. First, Brighton are in a slump, having failed to win in 7 matches, though they’ve drawn 5 of those 7. Arsenal, on the other hand, have won their last 4 matches across all competitions and haven’t lost in 12 matches. Form is on the side of Arsenal.
Further, I like the motivations for Arsenal here. They will need a win to keep pressure on league-leaders, Liverpool. With striker Kai Havertz missing the last game due to illness and Gabriel Jesus filling in well for him, there will be motivation by the striker to impress, regardless of who is selected to start.
Arsenal will be missing a couple key defensive players through injury or suspension, but Brighton arguably have bigger injury concerns, particularly missing former Arsenal player, Danny Welbeck.
Pick #3: Nottingham Forest Moneyline +130 (Jan. 6, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last bet, I’m backing the Cinderella team of the season so far, Nottingham Forest to get a win against Wolves.
Wolves are starting a revival under new coach Vitor Pereira, beating Leicester, Manchester United, and drawing with Spurs. More importantly, they’re finally starting to score goals.
Nottingham Forest, who have been defensively resilient, may be their toughest test yet. Forest have conceded the 3rd fewest goals per match and have picked up a total of 28 points of a possible 30 when playing against clubs in the bottom half of the table this season.
There’s a defensive practicality to Forest, coupled with the ability to consistently score goals, that has allowed them to climb to 3rd place in the table. I expect another practical win from Forest to stay in the top 3.
Across the Globe:
Osasuna Moneyline +105 (Spain; Copa Del Rey)
Udinese to Win Either Half -125 (Italy; Serie A)
Celta Vigo Moneyline -105 (Spain; Copa Del Rey)
Inter Milan Moneyline -150 (Italy; Supercoppa Italia)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 23-33
Across the Globe: 43-48
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