English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 4 (Sep. 13, 2025 - Sep. 14, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
Sep 12
5 min read

Updated: Sep 13

Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

On Saturday, Chelsea beat Fulham, thanks in part to a controversial VAR check ruled out an early Fulham goal. Manchester United got their first win of the season, while Wolves, Fulham, and Newcastle continue to seek their first win of the new campaign.

On Sunday, Brighton, West Ham, and Crystal Palace each got their first win, while Liverpool continued their perfect start, beating Arsenal 1-0.

After 3 weeks, Liverpool top the table with 3 wins, while Wolves are at the bottom with 3 losses.

We went 1-2 for Best Bets, winning with Chelsea and losing on Tottenham and Leeds. Across the Globe we went 4-1, only missing out on Atlético Madrid, who have had an abysmal start to their season, despite a relatively strong transfer window.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 4 brings us a loaded Saturday, with 8 matches across 4 match windows.

The day starts with Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest in Ange Postecoglou’s first match as Forest’s manager, and ends with Brentford hosting Chelsea in another London Derby, with Chelsea having played London clubs in each of their first 3 matches.

There are only 2 matches on Sunday, with Burnley hosting Liverpool in the early match, and the Manchester Derby as the final match of the weekend.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Jack Grealish (Everton) 2+ Total Shots -125 (Sep. 30, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):

For our first Best Bet, we’re taking a player prop, backing Jack Grealish to get 2+ shots as Everton host Aston Villa.

When looking at player props, I mostly stay away from the shots on target market, opting instead for shots or for the “to score or assist” market.

Grealish joined Everton on loan this season from Manchester City and has hit the ground running, assisting in 4 of Everton’s 5 EPL goals this season, leading the league in assists.

Grealish has at least 1 shot in his 4 Everton matches across all competitions, having 2 shots in each of his last 2 matches.

Further, Grealish is returning to his boyhood club in Aston Villa. Grealish played 7 seasons with Villa, becoming their star man and captain before earning a move to Man City for a British-record transfer fee in 2021. He’s now filling a similar role for Everton, taking on the mantle of being the star player.

In the 4 matches Grealish has played against his old club, he’s had a 2+ shots in 3, with the only exception being his first match, where he only played 10 minutes.

Grealish has been impressive for Everton so far and will be hungry to put in a good performance against his old club.

I’ll also be dabbling on Grealish to Score or Assist +175.

Pick #2: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline +115 (Sep. 13, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):

For my second Best Bet, I’m going right back to a team that let us down last week, Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs travel to West Ham United this weekend for a London Derby.

Spurs had a poor performance and lost their last match, while West Ham beat Nottingham Forest 0-3, with all 3 goals coming within the final 10 minutes.

West Ham are struggling to start the season and are tied with Wolves for having conceded the most goals (8 in 3 matches). Their dramatic late win against Forest looks nice based on the scoreline, but they started quite slow, with only 3 shots and .23 xG in the first half.

Tottenham brought in Mohammed Kudus from West Ham this summer for a fee of almost $75M and has played for most of Spurs 3 EPL matches thus far, as well as in the UEFA Super Cup just prior to the EPL season. He’s looked good for Spurs and already has 2 assists.

Further, Spurs were active late in the Transfer Window, bringing in Xavi Simons from RB Leipzig and Randal Kolo Muani from PSG.

I expect Spurs will look to get some minutes for Simons and Kolo Muani, as well as have Kudus involved against his former club. While it could take time for the team to click, I’m anticipating a more aggressive Spurs team than the one that lost to Bournemouth in matchweek 3.

Pick #3: Chelsea Moneyline -110 (Sep. 13, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my final bet, I’m going with a team we’ve backed each week in this series thus far, Chelsea.

We backed them successfully in the last two matchweek, betting on their moneyline and over 1.5 goals in each of those. This week, I’m just sticking with the moneyline as they travel to Brentford in a London Derby.

Chelsea are 2nd in the EPL table, as well as 2nd in goals scored, just behind Liverpool. They’ve only conceded one goal this season and are tied for 1st in that statistic.

Chelsea will have a few key players returning from International Duty, though they should have enough time to recover from any jet lag.

As much as we’re trusting Chelsea here, this bet also is fading Brentford, who lost their coach, keeper, and two key strikers (Wissa and Mbuemo) in the summer transfer window.

Brentford are still struggling to connect the dots with all the turnover, as they are currently 18th of 20 in the EPL for possession and are last for accurate passes. Chelsea are 1st and 2nd in those stats, respectively.

Both clubs will have a quick turnaround for their next match, as Chelsea travel to Germany to play Bayern Munich in the Champions League, and Brentford hosting Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. However, Chelsea should have the depth to handle Brentford and still be ready for Bayern.

Feeling confident? Try Chelsea Moneyline and Over 1.5 Total Goals +105

Bonus:

Looking to bet the Manchester Derby? I’m backing City to get it done, taking Manchester City Moneyline -130.

I’m seeing other soccer media say this will be tough for City, as they’ll be without Marmoush due to injury and will have a Champions League match this Thursday, while Manchester United don’t have a match until next weekend.

Despite this, I still like City here. They’re at home, facing a United side that barely managed a win last time to Burnley, and have Erling Haaland, who scored 5 goals and assisted 2 in a dominant win for Norway in World Cup Qualifiers.

Both squads will have a new keeper in this match, which should make for a fun storyline.