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MLB Player Prop 5/21

Yusei Kikuchi getting ready to throw a pitch
By: Tom Dakers, BlueBirdBanter

The props from last night were just unfortunate. Aaron Judge hit his over for Hits + Runs + RBIs in the first inning. I thought a perfect night was in play, but that quickly faded. Pablo Lopez made the struggling Nationals lineup look like nine Barry Bonds. He surrendered 8 hits, and 7 earned runs, while only getting to 5 innings. Then there was Reese Olson, who unfortunately got drilled by a line drive that connected with his hip. He left the game after 2.2 innings and finished with 2 strikeouts. Lopez was a dud and Olson unfortunately had to leave early, as both props went down the drain. 

Last night had a chance to be a victory, but it was a whimper. We have a full slate of player props to choose from. Today is a chance to bounce back and regroup. Here are the three best props for today. 

Yusei Kikuchi Over 17.5 Outs (-175)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball at the moment and there are no silver linings either. The team is in full rebuild mode and you can tell by the talent on the field. They are without their only star player, Luis Robert Jr., and have no one capable of filling that void by 50%. Today they are matched up with the Toronto Blue Jays, who are also having a disappointing season. However, Yusei Kikuchi should be able to execute against this White Sox lineup. 

The White Sox are awful against left-handed pitchers. Against lefties, the White Sox are batting .196, which is the worst in MLB. Furthermore, Kikuchi is having a good season in his own right. He is commanding a 2.60 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP. In his nine starts, Kikuchi has eclipsed this over in six of them. He can go the distance if needed, which can be the case today. Expect a big Kikuchi showing against a putrid White Sox squad. I would sprinkle in Kikuchi 8+ strikeouts (+180) as well. This could be the best pitching performance of the day. 

Lance Lynn 5+ Hits Allowed (-185)

The Baltimore Orioles head to Missouri to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. For the Cardinals, they will have veteran Lance Lynn on the mound, who has been okay so far this season. However, he tends to struggle at home. For the entire season, Lynn obtains a 4.17 ERA, but at home, he has a 5.03 ERA in 4 starts. 

The Orioles hit bombs. They lead the league in home runs with Gunnar Henderson (+205 for a Home Run) leading the entire league with 16 dingers. Lynn is in the 17th percentile for allowed barrel%, while the Orioles are the second-best in barrel%. 

This is a juicy matchup for the Orioles, but I want to play it safe with the 5+ hits allowed rather than touch the 5.5 line. Lynn has allowed 5+ hits in six of the nine games but only exceeded 5 hits three times. Lynn is going to allow contact, which is a blessing for the Orioles. However, I would take the 5+ hits allowed and be careful about an inflated potential line. 

Mitch Garver Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-175)

The Seattle Mariners are in first place in the AL West. They are ahead of the defending champion, Texas Rangers, and the usual dominant Houston Astros. Even with a good start to the season, they have to be disappointed with their free-agent acquisition of Mitch Garver. The batting numbers for Garver are just awful beyond belief. He is batting .169 with a .607 OPS. Unfortunately, the numbers get worse. 

Garver is batting .135 with a .511 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Clarke Schmidt of the Yankees has been good this season. Then there is the Yankees bullpen, who are lights out. Garver is going to struggle against the best team in the American League. His numbers just scream trouble against the Yankees. 

Taking the under here might be my favorite play on the board. The Mariners are looking good, but Garver is not the one helping the cause. Fade Garver until he turns it around. 

2024 MLB Record: 5-4

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