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NBA Player Props 4/28

Kristaps Porzingis goes up for jumpshot for the Boston Celtics
By: Bobby Krivitsky, Sports Illustrated

The first round of the NBA playoffs is heating up with some series looking like they are going to be over pretty soon. The Minnesota Timberwolves are the first team to advance after they swept the Phoenix Suns last night. Tonight, the OKC Thunder and Denver Nuggets look to be the next set of teams that advance. 

There are a total of three games tonight that give us a chance to make up for last week. A 2-2 record will suffice after Jamal Murray and Tyrese Maxey cost us a perfect record. Tonight we try for that perfect record with some good player props on board. Let's take a look at the props for tonight

Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Threes (-138)

The Boston Celtics should be able to put a vice grip on this series against the Miami Heat tonight. The Heat do not have the talent to match up with this Celtics squad, as they are dealing with injuries throughout the roster. However, the Heat pulled off a crazy upset in game two but got crushed in game three. 

Kristaps Porzingis is a key cog in this Celtics machine and his ability to stretch the floor is why he is so important. His line is at 1.5 made threes, which might seem too low. He has shot at least four threes in each of the games this series. He also averaged 5.1 threes attempted in the regular season. The volume is there for Porzingis. 

The Heat were a decent team in the regular season at allowing threes made. This is a different team though and can't stop the Celtics if they get hot from beyond the arc. Game two was bad all-around for the Celtics, as Porzingis didn't make a single three. In the games where the Celtics got going and won, Porzingis made more than two threes. 

Anthony Davis 25+ Points (-150)

The Lakers are playing for their playoff lives tonight. After avoiding the sweep in game four, the Lakers return to Denver and try to keep hope alive. LeBron James has been great, but Anthony Davis has been phenomenal in the first four games. He is averaging 30 and 16 for this series right now. 

Davis has a case that he has been the best player in this series next to Nikola Jokic and LeBron. The dominance from Davis should make this line an easy choice. The Nuggets have had some success in the fourth quarter against Davis, but by that point, he has already eclipsed 25 points each time. 

The Nuggets are going to go all out to make sure this series does not go back to LA, but Davis might have something to say about that. I would ladder this up to even 35+ points (+650) for a nice juicy sprinkle. He is also at +340 for the top points scorer for the game tonight. Davis is a monster and jumps on board before it is too late. 

Michael Porter Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-108)

Nikola Jokic has been the best player on the Nuggets by far, which is no surprise to anyone. However, the second most consistent player for them has been Michael Porter Jr. His shooting has been excellent for a team that is struggling from three in the postseason. He is averaging 22 points per game in this series, while shooting 53% from the field and 44% from three. 

Another subplot going on in this matchup is now the injury to Jamal Murray. Murray has been inconsistent this series, despite hitting that clutch game-winner in game two. He is dealing with a calf strain and might miss game five tonight. If he were to miss the game, then expect MPJ to take on more of the scoring load. 

However, MPJ can easily exceed this line with a healthy Murray. The Lakers do not defend the three-point shot, but the Nuggets are struggling. The one bright spot has been MPJ. He is going to get his open looks. It all comes down to him hitting those tough shots. 

His three-point line is at 3.5 with the over at +134. He has only exceeded that number in two of the four games, but with no Murray or a banged-up version, MPJ might need to hit those four threes for the Nuggets to avoid a potential collapse. 


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