NFL Week 1 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.Being a premium member pays for itself! If you would like access to the entire article, consider joining one of our premium member plans!

Saquon Barkley HIGHER THAN 0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs

The Cowboys kick off the season against their division rivals, and this matchup should have Saquon Barkon eager to hit the ground running. Dallas ranked fourth-worst in rushing yards allowed and gave up the most rushing touchdowns last season. Interestingly, Barkley didn’t find the end zone in either of his two games against Dallas last year, but this opener presents a prime opportunity for the defending Super Bowl champions to showcase their playmakers against a struggling Dallas defense—especially after they traded away their top player. With Dallas’s explosive offense in play, this game has the potential to turn into a high-scoring showdown, making this pick even more enticing.

DK Metcalf HIGHER THAN 56.5 Receiving Yards

   This pick makes the most sense if you see it as the safest option, short of the Steelers being completely shut down. It’s a revenge game for Rodgers, who left the Jets frustrated after Aaron Glenn and the team dismissed him from his role. The Steelers reshaped their receiving corps this offseason, trading away Pickens and bringing in DK Metcalf, making him the clear top receiving threat. While Pittsburgh will lean on the run and their defense—still the team’s strength—Week 1 presents a modest total. Expect this number to creep closer to 70.5 once the season settles in and more data comes in.

J.K. Dobbins HIGHER THAN 45.5 Rushing Yards

   The Titans finished last year with one of the league’s worst rushing defenses, and they made no offseason moves to address it. This week, the Titans open with their QB in Denver, which could lead to frequent short-field situations for the Broncos and a game that gets out of hand quickly—meaning more opportunities on the ground. While rookie Harvey has been getting attention, Payton has named JK Dobbins the starter, having targeted the talented back in free agency. With Denver’s offensive line paving the way, Dobbins should have little trouble surpassing 50 rushing yards.

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