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Premier League Best Bets (Feb. 17-18)




Are you finding yourself feeling a bit lost now that the NFL football season has drawn to a dramatic close and looking for something to fill that void? Might I suggest the other football, a.k.a, soccer, which is just now entering its most exciting and dramatic stages of its season. Soccer in the US is gaining momentum, and with the US hosting the next World Cup, there’s no better time to get onboard and see what it’s all about if you’re new to the sport.

 

In this article series, we’ll pick up about 2/3 of the way into the Premier League season, the top-flight for competitive soccer in England and arguably one of the greatest sporting leagues in the world. The goal of this series is, first and foremost, to put out quality content for betting on the Premier League and other soccer matches. If you’re a diehard supporter, please join us and weigh in with your opinions. However, my secondary goal for this series is to make soccer more accessible to newer fans or fans of the more “traditional” American sports who have yet to fall in love with the Beautiful Game. Simply put, the rhetoric in this series will be geared towards new soccer fans, but the content will be geared towards all fans.

 

 One of the best things about following European Soccer in the US is the timing of the games, with Most Premier League games taking place on Saturday and Sunday mornings. There are few things better than starting the day by drinking coffee and watching soccer on a Saturday or Sunday morning.

 

So, without further ado, let’s get into some bets:

 

Pick #1: Manchester United Moneyline -125 (Feb. 18, 2024; 11:30 a.m. EST)

 

I anticipate this line may move a bit before Sunday, I locked this in at -120. If you’re new here, many soccer matches can end in a draw and I often bet on teams to win, as opposed to lose or draw.

 

Manchester United, perhaps the most historic (or at least recognizable) club in England or all of world football, have had their fair share of struggles this year but finally seem to be turning things around. They’ve not lost now in 5 matches across all competitions and seem to finally have their young players combining effectively. Had United had a better Champions League campaign they’d be playing in the middle of the week, but they’ve crashed out of European competition altogether and have nothing to do but focus on this weekend’s Premier League Match.

 

Luton Town, their opponents, are a newly promoted team that are defying some expectations. Unlike traditional American sports, the bottom 3 teams in the Premier League each year drop down into the second tier and 3 from the second tier come up for the following season. Luton has been promoted to the Premier League this season for the first time in 30 years. Hats off to Luton, known as the Hatters, but I think United get the better of them this weekend. Luton thrashed Brighton 4-0 a few weeks ago, then played a 4-4 thriller at Newcastle where they blew a 4-2 lead, only to lose 1-3 at home to another newly promoted team, Sheffield United, this past weekend. And they travel to top-of-the-league Liverpool only 3 days later, while Man U will get 6 days of rest before their next match.

 

Bottom line, this is a juiced line because of Luton’s recent goal scoring, being the home team, and United’s general struggles this season, but United are looking stronger and are in a better spot to get the win. Looking to dabble on something fun and frisky? Perhaps give Both Teams to Score No Draw a chance at +110.

 

 

Pick #2: Newcastle United Moneyline -115 (Feb. 17, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST)

 

This should be a tough match between Newcastle, who have been somewhat shaky as of late and have had a rough few months, and Bournemouth, who had an exceptional run in December, but have yet to manage a win in the Premier League in 2024.

 

Newcastle won their last match against Nottingham Forest 3-2, taking the lead 3 separate times. Newcastle is playing at home, which can be a tough ground at which to play. Their last game was the 4-4 draw with Luton and, although they gave away some chances, they clawed back from 2 goals down to get the draw and looked like they were going to get a fifth goal before time ran out.

 

Bournemouth have looked decent and sit somewhat comfortably in 13th place, 8 points above the relegation line, but have the fifth worse goal differential in the league (-13). They’ll have a tough game at Newcastle before taking on Manchester City, one of the best teams around, at home. I anticipate they’ll concede goals and will struggle to keep up the same goalscoring rate.

 

Bottom line, Newcastle is the better side and playing at home. Similarly to Manchester United, they’ve crashed out of Europe altogether, so no big midweek game for them this week. Newcastle need the result to keep challenging for the top places and Bournemouth can survive with a loss here.

 

Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Liverpool Moneyline and Tottenham Win or Draw -115 (Feb. 17, 2024; 7:30 a.m. EST and 10:00 a.m. EST)

 

For my last pick, I’m taking a Saturday morning Parlay with Liverpool to win and Tottenham to win or draw (look for the “Double Chance” in your sportsbook).

 

Both Liverpool and Tottenham are flying high right now. Liverpool are at the top of the league and have to take the opportunity to keep that spot away from Manchester City or Arsenal. Because of their finishing position in the Europa League, they don’t have a midweek game. Their opponents, Brentford, have been solid and just got their star striker back from a gambling suspension but is that enough to take down Liverpool?

 

I actually like Tottenham to win their match against Wolves as well but went with them to win or draw instead, just to be on the safe side. Tottenham, or Spurs, are my club so I have a little bias there. However, they have been on fire under new coach Ange Postecoglou and have just tied a record for the longest streak in the Premier League for games in which they’ve scored a goal. Spurs, unfortunately, have a bit of a reputation for choking (or bottling, as the Brits say), and Wolves are a decent defensive squad, so I’ve gone with the double chance for this match to safeguard against something crazy like a 0-0 draw. However, Tottenham are creating as many opportunities to score as just about anyone in the league right now and are just getting some players back from injury or international duty to help seal the win.

 

Feeling confident? Parlay Liverpool and Spurs to win, +147.

 

Around the Grounds:

 

In addition to Premier League bets, I’ll also throw out a few plays I like across other soccer leagues in the “Around the Grounds” section. As much as I love the Premier League, it is one of the most competitive leagues, which can make it trickier to bet or predict than other leagues.

 

Barcelona Moneyline -125 (Spain; La Liga)

AC Milan Moneyline -130 (Italy; Serie A)

FC Copenhagen Moneyline -120 (Denmark; Superligaen)

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