Welcome to another installment of Premier League Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, with the goal of providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
Oof. This last round of EPL matches had us ice cold by the end of the weekend. It was a light weekend in the EPL with some clubs paying in the FA Cup (a knockout-style competition in England), meaning many matches were postponed. The weekend didn’t change much for the title race, but had implications on the top 4 race and relegation positions (bottom 3).
It was a weekend where nothing went as planned, particularly our bets. Our main bets were 1-2, only managing to win our safest play of Aston Villa to win either half, and even that was looking suspect. A red card for Brentford’s Sergio Reguilon within the opening 10 minutes that also gave away a penalty kick meant certain doom for Brentford. Tottenham looked like they might actually win from behind, but broke down and looked a shell of the team they have been as of late.
Around the Grounds (the non-EPL bets), we did even worse, losing all 3. Wolves seemed certain to win their FA cup match until 2 late goals from Coventry did them in. Liverpool lost to Manchester United in a thriller that went to extra time, and Besiktas lost at home.
My apologies to anyone who tailed us last time. Club Soccer has been on an “International Break,” where there are no club matches for a weekend and players good enough to play for their national team go off and compete with them in various competitions during the break. I’m hopeful the break was just what I needed to shake off the funk, get my mojo back, and get back in the win column this week.
Without further ado, here are my best bets for the weekend:
Pick #1: Fulham Moneyline -135 (March 30, 2024; 11:00 a.m. EST):
If you’ve been following our EPL best bets, you’ll already know that we have been fading Sheffield United. They are last place in the standings and, although they managed a draw last time out, they had led the game 2-0 before blowing that lead late on. They’ve struggled to score goals, particularly at home, having not managed a goal in their last 3 home matches, while their opponents racked up a combined 16 in those 3 matches. Yikes.
Now they host Fulham, who sit in 12th place and are looking good on both offense and in defense. They beat Spurs 3-0 in the last game and have been on a solid run of form over the past two months. They’ve created enough chances to look dangerous going forward and have had a solid defense, keeping 8 clean sheets this season, only 3 away from the clean sheet leaders, Arsenal, even putting in solid performances against the bigger clubs. Tim Ream looked great in defense for the USMNT over the international break and I’m backing Fulham for another solid performance on the road.
Bottom Line: Come on, lads, it’s only Sheffield.
Pick #2: Manchester United Moneyline +130 (March 30, 2024; 4:00 p.m. EST):
Manchester United +130 might be my favorite bet of the weekend. They’re playing on the road against a Brentford side that should be looking stronger with Ivan Toney back now for a few weeks, giving us a great line.
I backed Brentford last week unsuccessfully, thinking they’d separate themselves from the relegation zone, only for them to blow it with an early red card. I expected them to turn things around, but the loss to Burnley makes it 6 games without a win, conceding at least a goal in each of those matches.
Manchester United have had their struggles this season but are looking like they can make a push for the top 4 following a good run of form and poor results from their closest competition, Aston Villa and Spurs. Kobbie Mainoo has brought a spark to the United midfield and had an excellent debut for the England National Team over the international break. They should also have Højlund back, who helped United beat Liverpool in an FA Cup thriller, at the expense of one of our bets from last time.
Bottom Line: United need to build on their momentum to get top 4 and Brentford will look to turn things around at home, but I anticipate United to be too much for them.
Brentford have only been held scoreless in 5 matches this season and have conceded goals in each of their last 6 matches, while United have been shaky in defense and are expected to have a makeshift back line for this match, so I also like Both Teams To Score, although at -230, I don’t plan to bet it. I don’t hate Both Teams To Score No Draw at +105, but I anticipate United will get the win and like the moneyline better.
Pick #3: Manchester City Moneyline -110 (March 31, 2024; 11:30 a.m. EST):
The biggest game of the week is, without a doubt, Manchester City hosting Arsenal. Arsenal sit in first place with 64 points, with Man City in third with 63. This match may very well be the decisive game in the title race and should provide for an excellent match.
Manchester City are at home in the final stretch of the season with the title on the line. Need I go on?
Arsenal were at the top for quite a while last season, until a couple of poor results and a near perfect run from City ensured another EPL title for them. Arsenal fans will tell you this year will be different, everyone else knows that this is just what City do this time of year. Pep Guardiola and Man City lost their match at Arsenal earlier this season and will not want to lose at home to his old apprentice, Mikel Arteta.
Bottom Line: City will find a way at home to get the win and leapfrog Arsenal in the table and delivering a major blow to another title contender.
Bonus:
There are a few other EPL bets I like this week and will be on. Nottingham Forest just got hit with a points deduction for breaches of financial fair play regulations and now host Crystal Palace. I’ve been backing CP under their new manager and, although I expect a tough defensive fight from Forest, I will be on Crystal Palace or Draw -155 and will dabble in Crystal Palace Moneyline +235.
Another bet I’ll be on this weekend is a parlay of Tottenham and Liverpool moneylines -150. I’m a Tottenham fan and my brother-in-law is a Liverpool fan, so I often bet these two together. It’s a bet from the heart, not from the head, but I do like their matchups quite a bit this weekend.
Around the Grounds:
AC Milan Moneyline +145 (Italy; Serie A)
Boca Juniors Moneyline +105 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
Toronto FC +165 (USA; MLS)
PSG Moneyline +110 (France; Ligue 1)
Ajax Moneyline -150 (Netherlands; Eredevisie)
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