UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama - DFS Plays and Fades
- Ben Bentley
- 20 hours ago
- 3 min read
Being a premium member pays for itself! Real quick scoring overview: Fighters get .2 points for strikes and sig strikes, +0.03 pts/second of control time, 5 pts for TDs, 5 pts for reversals, and 10 pts for knockdowns. The earlier a fight ends; the more bonus points you receive. With this scoring, hesitant strikers that back up will single handedly sink your roster. I'm looking for wrestlers and guys with knockout power. If you would like access to the entire article, consider joining one of our premium member plans!
Every Lineup Fighter: Steve Garcia, $8,300, (-130)
Steve Garcia is my every-lineup fighter this week, and the numbers back it up in every possible way. Garcia comes in riding a six-fight win streak, with five of those victories coming by knockout — a blistering run that’s turned him from an overlooked brawler into one of the most dangerous finishers in the division. He’s facing David Onama, a fighter who hasn’t scored a finish in over two years, and that contrast in momentum and violence is exactly what makes Garcia so appealing across all DFS builds.
The betting line tells the same story. Oddsmakers have this fight set at an over/under of just 1.5 rounds, signaling a high likelihood of an early finish. But when you dig deeper, the data favors Garcia even more. In our Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 simulations), Garcia came out on top in 67.4% of scenarios, with nearly 80% of his wins coming inside the distance. His striking efficiency and pressure overwhelmed Onama in those simulated outcomes, as Garcia’s volume advantage (+1.7 strikes landed per minute) and defensive metrics gave him more paths to victory than the public line suggests.
Garcia’s power has been translating early and often — he’s scored a knockdown in three of his last four fights and hasn’t needed the judges in over two years. Meanwhile, Onama’s recent performances have shown hesitation and reduced output, averaging under 2.5 significant strikes landed per minute in his last two fights. Combine that with Garcia’s kill-or-be-killed style, and you have the recipe for a slate-breaking performance.
