Champions League Best Bets #18 (Final; May 31, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
14 hours ago
4 min read

Updated: 2 minutes ago

Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

The 1st-leg of the Barcelona / Inter match was arguably the best match of the season, perhaps in any league, up to that point.

Somehow, they managed to top it with the 2nd-leg, as Inter Milan advanced after extra time with the match ending 4-3 and 7-6 on aggregate across the two legs.

Barça looked set to advance with a Raphinha goal in the 87th minute, only to concede a goal at 90+3 to Francesco Acerbi. Inter then got the winner in extra time through Davide Frattesi.

PSG took an early lead at the Emirates on Tuesday with a 4th-minute goal from Ousmane Dembélé, who left the pitch with a hamstring injury after 70 minutes. They held that lead for the rest of the match, though Arsenal thought they had equalized early in the 2nd half, with the goal being called offside.

PSG held off Arsenal 2-1, winning 3-1 on aggregate.

Arsenal’s manager, Mikel Arteta, stated after the match that the better team lost, sparking some debate. While they led in shots and xG, their lack of ability to get the ball in the back of the net ultimately saw them lose each leg, regardless of what other statistics say.

Our Best Bets went 3-0, winning on PSG Moneyline, as well as Raphinha to Score or Assist and Hakimi 2+ shots at a nice +160.

Upcoming Matches:

Now comes the big one, the Final. PSG v Inter Milan.

PSG are looking to win their first-ever Champions League trophy, after losing the 2020 Final to Bayern Munich. The Champions League is the ultimate prize for PSG, something they’ve been seeking since the Qatar Sports Investments fund gained a majority stake in 2011.

Inter are heading to their 2nd UCL Final in 3 years, losing the 2023 Final to Manchester City.

We’re set for a thriller, as two of Europes top teams this season battle it out for club football’s top prize.

The match kicks off at 3:00 p.m. EST in the States on Paramount+ and CBS, with pre-match coverage starting at 1:00 p.m. on Paramount+ and 1:30 p.m. on CBS.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Higher Scoring Half: 2nd Half +115 (May 31, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my first Best Bet, I’m looking at a market that I rarely ever bet, the higher scoring half market.

Generally speaking, I expect Finals to start more like a chess match, with each side taking time to unlock or expose the other. In my experience, this often leads to tighter matches in finals, with each side not wanting to make the first defensive mistake.

Thus, I’m not quite expecting the same 4-3 type of game we just saw with Barcelona and Inter.

In the last 10 years, the 2nd half has been the higher scoring half in the UCL 7 times. The first half has only won once, the 2021 final between Chelsea and Man City. That final was the most recent final to not have the 2nd half finish higher.

While PSG and Inter are attack-heavy squads, every player will be defending strong at the start, not wanting to make a mistake, then may turn it on in the 2nd as the legs start to tire.

Pick #2: Achraf Hakimi (PSG) 2+ Shots -130 (May 31, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

I’m backing this bet for a 3rd match in a row, despite the value dropping from +225 in the 1st-leg against Arsenal, to +160 in the 2nd leg, to -130 here for the final.

Hakimi only averaged 1.39 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 this season, but has stepped it up for the Champions League, averaging 2.11 shots per 90. He’s managed at least 2 shots in each of his last 6 UCL matches, but for the 1st-leg against Arsenal.

Over the 2 legs against Arsenal, Hakimi often found himself with the ball in space around the top of the box. While he’d sometimes look to thread the ball out wide, he’s also likely to shoot from that distance. For this reason, I don’t trust him to get as many on target, but he’ll start taking shots if he’s unable to unlock the Inter defense through a quick pass.

Pick #3: Under 2.5 Total Goals +100 (May 31, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my last Best Bet, I’m taking similar logic to our first bet and betting on the Under.

As I stated above, Finals often seem to take time to get going. Both sides know there’s a possibility of playing Extra Time, so they’ll start playing methodically, growing into the match and taking more risks as the time goes on.

In the last 10 UCL Finals, 7 of the 10 have ended with 2 goals or fewer, with the last final to end over 2.5 being the 2018 Final between Real Madrid and Liverpool. The last 6 have ended with 2 or fewer goals.

Italian teams historically prioritize defense, taking from the popular Catenaccio tactic from the 60s. While this Inter side is totally different than the Italian sides of old and is set up for attack, I think the midfield and defense of both squads will be pushing for control in the middle of the pitch, hesitant to give too much ground or opportunity in front of goal.

As much as I’d love a 4-3 thriller, if history is to repeat itself, we’re in for another tight, low-scoring affair.