NFL Week 3 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Juwan Johnson HIGHER THAN 3.5 Receptions

Johnson has been quietly flying under the radar, but the usage tells the story. He currently leads all tight ends in both targets and air yards, while ranking second in receptions and posting an elite 26.7% team target share. Now he gets a dream matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks dead last in the league at defending tight ends. With volume already locked in and the matchup tilting in his favor, Johnson clearing 3.5 receptions looks like strong value.

Javonte Williams HIGHER THAN 0.5 RSH + REC TDs

   The Bears have already surrendered three rushing touchdowns through three games and now face a red-hot Javonte Williams. He’s one of just two running backs with three scores in the first two weeks and has logged over 70% of the snaps in every game this season. Against Chicago’s 30th-ranked run defense, Williams’ volume and red-zone usage make him a strong bet to find the end zone again.

Wan'Dale Robinson HIGHER THAN 42.5 Rec Yds

   Wan’Dale ranks tied for 6th among wideouts in receptions and has 18 targets through just two games. He’s already put up 55 and 142 yards to start the season and now draws a favorable matchup against a Chiefs secondary that’s vulnerable outside of Trent McDuffie. With McDuffie and the safeties expected to key in on Malik Nabers, Robinson should see plenty of underneath opportunities. He’s on the field for over 70% of the offensive snaps and owns a healthy 25% target share, making 42.5 yards a very beatable number.

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