English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 38 (May 25, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
May 24
4 min read

Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.

For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

The final matchweek is here!

It’s been quite the interesting season this year, with Manchester City falling off and Liverpool stepping up to claim the Premier League Title.

The relegation battle was rather underwhelming this season, with the 3 newly promoted clubs, Southampton, Leicester City, and Ipswich Town, all going straight back down.

It’s been a big season in England for clubs ending long trophy droughts, as Crystal Palace won the FA Cup, their first major trophy in their 164-year history, Newcastle won the League Cup, their first major trophy in 56 years, and Tottenham won the UEFA Europa League, their first major trophy in 17 years.

There could yet be more good news for English clubs, with Chelsea playing in the Conference League final this coming Wednesday.

As we enter the final matchweek, the fight for the top 5 spots, which come with a UEFA Champions League berth, is tighter than ever, with 3 points separating 3rd-place Manchester City and 7th-place Nottingham Forest.

English Premier League Table, Courtesy of espn.com

Our Best Bets went 3-0, including our Crystal Palace bet at +125, which jumped to +150 or better on matchday following their FA Cup triumph.

Across the Globe we went 3-2, winning with Marseille, Racing Genk, and Corinthians.

Upcoming Matches:

For the final matchweek, all 10 matches will kick off at the same time, 11:00 a.m. EST on Sunday, dubbed “Championship Sunday.”

Follow along as the table shifts live as the goals come in and find out who will get those highly-coveted Champions League positions. All eyes will likely be on the Nottingham Forest and Chelsea match, essentially with a spot in the Champions League on the line.

For the final time this season, let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Chelsea Moneyline +120 (May 25, 2025; 11:00 p.m. EST):

For my first Best Bet, I’m looking at the big match between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.

This is a huge match for determining who will make it into the Champions League and who will make it into the less-prestigious Europa League or Conference League.

If Chelsea win, they’ll guarantee themselves a Champions League place. With the amount of money spent by the club, they’ll need the financial benefit of the Champions League, as well as the boost for recruiting or retaining top players.

Simply put, this Premier League match could have more at stake than the Conference League final.

If Chelsea lose, however, Nottingham Forest will leapfrog them in the table, with Aston Villa also waiting to jump in front of Chelsea, as they’re currently tied on points but Chelsea have the superior goal differential as the tiebreaker.

Chelsea could quickly find themselves securing a Conference League spot with a loss, substantially raising the pressure for them to then win the Conference League final this season, which would come with a Europa League berth.

Nottingham Forest will similarly have plenty for which to play and fight, however, they’ve fallen off in the tail-end of the season, winning only 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.

While Forest would love to play Champions League, it is out of their hands, as they’d also need Villa to lose or draw. They’re guaranteed a European place of some kind but the pressure to have it be the Champions League is significantly higher for Chelsea than it is for Forest.

Pick #2: 2-Leg SGP: Manchester City Moneyline and Under 5.5 Total Goals -130 (May 25, 2025; 11:00 p.m. EST):

For my second Best Bet, I’m backing Manchester City to get the job done on the road at Fulham, with the under bringing this down to a playable -130.

The logic here is similar to our first bet, as Manchester City, are fighting for a Champions League place with control of their destiny in their hands.

Fulham, on the other hand, sit in 10th and have no chance of securing a European place. They were in a tight battle for a possible Conference League place going to 8th-place finisher in the EPL, but have recently slipped, losing 6 of their last 10 matches.

The under 5.5 goals is simply to boost this line. Fulham haven’t played a match all season that’s ended in over 5.5 goals and Manchester City has had 6 matches end over 5.5, but only 3 were EPL matches. Further, City have only scored 6 total goals in their last 5 matches.

I’ll also be putting half a unit on Man City Moneyline and Under 4.5 Goals +115.

Pick #3: Brentford Moneyline +130 (May 25, 2025; 11:00 p.m. EST):

For my final bet, I’m looking at Brentford as they fight for 8th and a potential final European place.

Whether 8th will be good enough for a Conference League spot will depend on whether Chelsea win’s next week’s Conference League.

Despite this, Brentford and Brighton, the two teams in the race for 8th, will be fighting to ensure they’re the ones in position if other results fall their way.

Wolves, their opponents this week, have been excellent to finish the season, but have fallen off since securing safety from relegation, losing their last 3 matches.

Brentford are coming off a 2-3 loss to Fulham, having won the prior 4 matches. While they’ll need a bit of help elsewhere, they’ll be doing what they can to control their destiny and get a win on the road against Wolves.