English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 6 (Sep. 27, 2025 - Sep. 29, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
6 days ago
4 min read

Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

Last weekend kicked off with the Merseyside Derby between Liverpool and Everton, where Liverpool kept their perfect start to the season, winning 2-1.

On the other end of the table, Wolves continued their abysmal start to the season, losing all 5 of their EPL matches so far this season.

Manchester United got a much-needed win against Chelsea, following a 5th-minute red card for Chelsea’s keeper, Robert Sánchez.

On Sunday, Manchester City looked set to take all 3 points with a win against Arsenal, but ended up sharing the points following a Martinelli goal in the 90+3rd minute.

We went 2-1 for Best Bets, winning with Leeds to Win Either Half and with Fulham Moneyline. Across the Globe we went 2-3, winning Bologna and SK Brann. Admittedly, the ATG bets were not my best this week, as I kept doubting Minnesota United and River Plate as those matches drew closer.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 6 brings us 7 matches across 4 match windows, providing another full day of EPL action!

On Sunday, Aston Villa hosts Fulham in the early match, with Newcastle hosting Arsenal in the later match.

We get one final match on Monday afternoon, as Everton host West Ham.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Manchester United Moneyline +105 (Sep. 27, 2025; 7:30 a.m. EST):

For our first Best Bet, I am once again fading Brentford, backing Manchester United to get the win on the road.

United are fresh off an important win against Chelsea, easing some pressure on United’s manager, Ruben Amorim. Brentford, on the other hand, are coming off a 3-1 loss to Fulham and have not won a match in regulation since August 27.

Brentford are in need of a consistent goal-scorer, after losing Wissa and Mbuemo in the summer.

The Bees are 19th of 20 in average possession and in accurate passes per match, as well as 18th for goals conceded per match.

United have struggled this season, particularly on the road, including a loss to 4th-tier Grimsby Town in the Carabao Cup. However, the Chelsea match seems like it could be a turning point for them and they’ll look to pick up points against Brentford and their next opponents, Sunderland.

United are 6th in goals scored per match, but are 1st in expected goals. While I don’t put too much faith in xG, it indicates United are getting in the right positions, just not finishing their goals.

At plus money, I love this price to back United against a struggling Brentford side.

Pick #2: Nottingham Forest v Sunderland BTTS -115 (Sep. 27, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):

Angeball is back, baby! And for my second Best Bet I’m leaning into the pros and cons of Ange Postecoglou’s style of play as Nottingham Forest host Sunderland, taking Both Teams to Score.

The Forest manager, who coached Spurs last season, prefers to play with a specific system and style of play. He has his defenders stay closer to the attacking play, holding a high line and pressing, trying to either catch the opposition offside or win the ball back and be in a good position to then transition into attacking play.

He moves his right and left backs into different areas of the pitch, overloading some areas, but also leaving the central defenders exposed at times.

What does this usually bring? Shots and goals. Big Ange likes his teams to play attacking football but that can often lead to defensive frailty at the back. His Spurs side last season scored 64 goals and conceded 65, which was the 5th-most goals conceded and was 8th for goals scored.

Sunderland have had both teams score in 3 of their 6 matches in all competitions this season, while Forest have had both teams score in 5 of 7 in all competitions, with both teams scoring in 3 of the 4 for which Ange Postecoglou has been at the helm.

Pick #3: Arsenal Moneyline +115 (Sep. 28, 2025; 11:30 a.m. EST):

For my final bet, I’m looking to Arsenal as they head north to play Newcastle at St. James’ Park.

There’s certainly some risk here, as Arsenal have struggled at St. James’ Park in recent history, losing their last 3 matches at the venue, including a loss in the Carabao Cup last season on Newcastle’s road to winning that competition. Arsenal last beat Newcastle away on May 7, 2023.

However, I don’t put too much weight into historic trends. Is Newcastle a notoriously tough venue? Yes. But Arsenal are by far the better side this season.

Arsenal have a few notable injuries, though they now have sufficient depth to cover and compete in multiple competitions.

Each of these teams are coming off a win in the Carabao Cup, though to clubs in the lower leagues. In the Champions League, Arsenal secured a 0-2 win on the road to Athletic Bilbao and are set to host Olympiacos on Wednesday, a match they should win despite Olympiacos strong form in the Greek league.

Newcastle lost their opening UCL match at home to Barcelona and now must travel to Belgium to face Union Saint-Gilloise, who are first in the Belgian league and are unbeaten in 9 matches.

This is a bad spot for Newcastle, who don’t have the same level of depth as Arsenal. With new attacker Wissa still out, they’ll be relying on Woltemade, Elanga, and Gordon up front, who all played a part in the Carabao Cup match last week and will be crucial for the upcoming Champions League match.

While Newcastle are a decent squad with a good atmosphere at home, Arsenal has the quality to beat them and will need to do so in order to keep up with Liverpool in the title race.