English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 7 (Oct. 3, 2025 - Oct. 6, 2025):

Aaron Bainbridge
Oct 3
5 min read

Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

Matchweek 6 was a wild one, with plenty of upsets and surprising results.

Of the 7 matches on Saturday, only one favorite (Manchester City, the biggest favorite) won their match, with the rest losing or only managing a draw.

Notably, Brentford beat Manchester United 3-1, Brighton beat Chelsea on the road 1-3 following another Chelsea red card, Sunderland beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 on the road, and Liverpool lost 2-1 to Crystal Palace.

On Sunday, Arsenal looked set to lose to l Newcastle before securing an 84th minute goal and then a late winner in stoppage time.

We went 1-2 for Best Bets, only winning Arsenal Moneyline and losing on Manchester United and BTTS for the Forest/Sunderland match.. Across the Globe we went 3-2, winning with Dortmund and both MLS bets (Philly and LAFC).

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 7 kicks off Friday afternoon, with Bournemouth hosting Fulham.

We have a smaller slate on Saturday, with 4 matches across 3 match windows. We then have 5 matches on Sunday, with 4 of them kicking off at 9:00 a.m. EST.

The marquee match of the weekend is Chelsea hosting Liverpool, with both teams fresh off a loss in the EPL and then a UEFA Champions League match midweek.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Arsenal to Win to Nil -120 (Oct. 4, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):

For our first Best Bet, I am taking Arsenal to Win to Nil as they take on 19th place West Ham in a London Derby.

Arsenal are coming off a come-from-behind win away at Newcastle, then won 2-0 at home in the Champions League on Wednesday to Greek-side Olympiacos.

Arsenal sit 2nd in the table and are tied for 2nd for goals scored per match. Defensively, they’re tied for 1st for fewest goals conceded and tied for 2nd in clean sheets, earning 3 in their 6 EPL matches.

However, they also have 2 clean sheets in the Champions League (against Athletic Bilbao and Olympiacos) and got a clean sheet in their Carabao Cup match, though against a 3rd-tier club.

With Odegaard and Saka back healthy, and Saliba signing a new long-term contact, the team should be defensively solid. While Gabriel left the UCL match with an injury, it seems to be just a knock and something unlikely to rule him out of this match.

West Ham United have been dreadful this season, prompting the club to fire Graham Potter and hire Nuno Espirito Santos last weekend.

They sit 19th and are 14th for goals per match. They are only 6th for shots on target but they haven’t been able to convert those chances into many goals.

Nuno had only had one match in charge, a 1-1 draw to Everton. However, Nuno is often considered a more defensive-minded coach and will look to spring on the counter-attack. Arsenal have only conceded one of their goals from a counter-attack so far this season, with the other 2 goals coming from set pieces. West Ham have only scored 1 goal from set pieces in the EPL this season.

Pick #2: Brighton Moneyline -105 (Oct. 5, 2025; 9:00 p.m. EST):

For our 2nd Best Bet, we’re backing a team I have a future on to finish in the top 10 this season, Brighton and Hove Albion.

Brighton have had a decent start to their season, despite a tough schedule, picking up a come-from-behind win against Man City and against Chelsea, though they were helped by a Chelsea red card. They also tied with Spurs and have won both Carabao Cup matches, winning 0-6 on the road in each of those matches, though against clubs in the 2nd or 3rd tier.

Brighton sit 6th for goals per match, though they sit 4th for expected goals (xG). While I don’t put too much faith in xG, it indicates they are getting good chances, just not always finishing them. They’ve had 8 different goalscorers in the EPL this season, so it has been a true team effort.

Brighton are a good pressing team, sitting 4th in the league for passes per defensive action (PPDA), a stat often used to measure how effectively a team can put pressure on their opposition and win the ball back. With Wolves’ tendency to have their wide players stretch the field in attack, this may provide a good opportunity for Brighton to take advantage on a counter attack and expose Wolves.

Wolves are the worst team in the league thus far, losing their first 5 EPL matches before getting a draw to Spurs at the weekend.

They’ve struggled to get Jørgen Strand Larsen going, a key to their push at the end of last season. They’ve scored the fewest goals in the league and only West Ham have conceded more.

While they’ve had a brief moment of hope by picking up a point against Spurs, I expect that to be short-lived as Brighton give them another reality check.

Pick #3: Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -105 (Oct. 5, 2025; 9:00 a.m. EST):

For my final bet, I’m looking to the high-flying Crystal Palace team to keep their good form and at least win either half against Everton.

There are a few concerns about this bet, primarily that CP just played a UEFA Conference League match on Thursday, a 0-2 win against Dynamo Kiev. While this match wasn’t played in Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict, it was played in Poland, which is still a far trip from London.

They now travel north to play Everton at Everton’s new stadium. Everton have yet to lose at home this season, another concern for this bet.

However, CP are undefeated in 19 matches across all competitions, including a win in the FA Cup Final (against Man City), a win in the Community Shield (against Liverpool), and recently beat Liverpool in their last EPL match. They also are tied with Arsenal for the fewest goals conceded in the EPL this season.

Additionally, they played a decently strong squad in the Conference League, but still were able to get a little rest for some of their attacking players.

Everton started the season well but have not won in 4 matches, getting a draw to West Ham at home most recently.

Despite the travel and Everton’s decent home form, Oliver Glasner is a manager I’ve been fond of since he started at CP and he has them firing on all cylinders, controlling both sides of the ball effectively.

Feeling confident? I’ll also be taking Crystal Palace Moneyline +185 for half a unit.