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MLB Player Props 6/14


Josh Naylor getting ready to swing the bat
By: Jim Ingraham, Forbes


Friday has arrived, which means the weekend is here, and what better way to start it than by earning some coin? Wednesday was good, as I went 2-1 with my props.  I underestimated Spencer Schwellenbach finding his groove after his first two career starts was not ideal. Javier Assad and Jake Irvin came in clutch with solid performances that got the job done. 

However, today is a new day and with new props to play. The board is set up nicely and I love some of the plays I am about to share. Here are my top three plays for this Friday.  

Luis Gil 6+ Strikeouts (-230)

The New York Yankees are on fire this season. They are running through the American League right now and look like a serious contender to win the World Series this year. The starting rotation has been lights out and that is without the reigning AL Cy Young recipient, Gerrit Cole. 

The Yankees have instead been led by a rookie sensation in Luis Gil. Not only is Gil in the running for AL Rookie of the Year, but he is also becoming a Cy Young contender right in front of our eyes. Gil has been flat-out dominant, as he is posting an 8-1 record with a 2.04 ERA and 90 strikeouts. Tonight he gets his first taste at the biggest rivalry in baseball, as he faces the Boston Red Sox in Fenway. 

When it comes to strikeouts Gil can put up huge numbers. He posted a 14-strikeout game earlier this season and has had some other big numbers sprinkled in as well. I believe he can crack the 6+ strikeouts tonight with ease. The Red Sox have the third-worst team K% for hitting at 25.2%, while Gil is ranked in the 90th percentile in K%. 

I love his line, but I decided to play a little conservative with the strikeouts due to a few bad hooks over the last couple of strikeout props. However, I would not mind laddering his strikeouts all the way to 8 or even 9 tonight. 

Hunter Brown Over 16.5 Outs (-115) 

Hunter Brown has finally shown the flashes we expected from him this season. At the beginning of the year, Brown was awful with his ERA ballooning to 16.43. He has now brought it back down to a 5.58 and has maintained a hot streak of good starts. He has hit this over now in four straight starts, which is a huge improvement from his earlier performances. 

The one thing Brown has been good at is not allowing hard contact. He currently ranks in the 70th percentile for Hard-Hit% and 81th percentile in Barrel%. His opponent tonight, the Detroit Tigers, rank in the better half of the league in those two respective categories. 

Furthermore, Brown does struggle with walks, but the Tigers rank 22nd in BB%. The Houston Astros have been up-and-down all season, mostly down, but Brown is putting it together. If he knocks the walks down, he can easily hit this over for the struggling Houston Astros. 

Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135)

I was looking at Kevin Gausman and was trying to find a way to fade him after his complete game shutout in his last start. However, none of the lines really stood out to me. Instead I went with a batter facing him. The person I ended up choosing is Josh Naylor. 

The young first baseman started the year on a tear, but has cooled down within the last month. However, I think Naylor can have a great game in the early going against Gausman. The veteran pitcher has allowed an alarming percentage of hard hit balls. He currently ranks in the 7th percentile in Barrel% and 16th percentile in Hard-Hit%. On the flip side of those numbers, Naylor mainly hits the ball hard. He is in the 80th percentile in Barrel% and 73rd in Hard-Hit%. 

Also, lefties are batting .287 with a .811 OPS against Gausman, Naylor is batting .239 with 13 of his 17 home runs being against right-handed pitchers. The matchup screams a bounce back game for Naylor on his quest for an All-Star appearance. Naylor has only hit this over three times in the month of June, but I can see him knocking this over and maybe hitting one out of the park (+475). 


MLB Record: 13-14



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