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MLB Player Props 6/21

Dylan Cease winding up to throw a pitch
By: Ross D. Franklin, Associated Press

Monday was a positive day of betting with two of the three props turning green. However, Yusei Kikuchi was just flat-out awful in his start versus the Boston Red Sox. It is time for Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays to enter the banned list for the foreseeable future. Sometimes you have to be willing to ban a player or team to make the betting process easier. 

After a slim day of baseball yesterday, the full slate is back, which is perfect for us bettors. A long list of player props awaits, so let's take a look at the best three for today. 

Dylan Cease Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-170)

The San Diego Padres went out and nabbed an ace for their squad by acquiring Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox. That has been met with mixed results. There have been games where Cease looks like the guy who finished second in Cy Young voting a few years ago. Then there are flashes of the guy who had a 4.58 ERA last season. He has now found a middle area between the two versions as of late. 

However, I love his line for walks today and hammering the over. Cease faced this same Milwaukee Brewers team earlier in the year and had 6 strong innings with 7 strikeouts, but he also allowed 5 walks. The Brewers are one of the best teams at drawing walks with a BB% of 9.6%. The Brewers are one of the more patient teams in the league, while Cease can be erratic at times. 

Cease can have games where he is either striking out or walking a batter. That was how the first matchup against the Brewers went and I can envision the same outcome. 

Carlos Rodon Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160)

Carlos Rodon has had an inconsistent season thus far. However, he began to improve during the middle of May and is looking as if he is finally going to be able to live up to that big contract the Yankees gave him. Despite his resurgence, I really want to fade him and bet the over on hits, but not necessarily due to his potential play.

The Yankees bullpen is extremely depleted with several guys not going to be able to pitch today. One of the pitchers they do have available is their closer, which really shortens the bullpen even more. Rodon has not gone more than 6 innings except for on two occasions, but he might need to tonight against the Atlanta Braves who are starting to get back on track after a skid. 

Furthermore, some of Rodon's peripheral numbers are concerning. He is in the 20th percentile in Barrel%, while he is also in the 18th percentile in Hard-Hit%. The Braves' offense ranks in the top 5 in those respective categories even with some struggles and the lost of their MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr.. 

Rodon is not a bad pitcher this season by any means even with those peripheral numbers, but the lack of bullpen depth today might force the Yankees to push him out there longer than what they would prefer. 

Jordan Montgomery Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120)

Jordan Montgomery was a mini playoff hero for the World Series champion Texas Rangers last season, but the sky is currently falling this season. Montgomery waited late into Spring Training to sign with Arizona Diamondbacks and they may have costed him tremendously. He is currently rocking a 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. 

The veteran pitcher over the past month has just struggled immensely. In four straight starts, Montgomery has not gone past the 5th inning. He is also allowing right-handed batters hit .328 off of him. Now he has to go into Philadelphia and face the best team in the National League in the Phillies, who are looking for revenge against a D-Backs squad that took them down in the NLCS. 

The Phillies are looking for retribution and Montgomery might be the first victim. Furthermore, the D-Backs have a fully rested bullpen, which means if Montgomery faces some trouble, look for him to be pulled early to stop the potential onslaught of runs. 

The over/under for this game started at 9, but has not been pushed to 10, which means we should expect runs tonight in total. I love this under and can see Montgomery getting knocked around by this amazing Phillies lineup. 

MLB Record: 17-16


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