NFL Week 10 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!

Bhayshul Tuten HIGHER THAN 0.5 Receptions

I’ve been high on Tuten ever since he lit up the 2025 Combine, and this week sets up perfectly for him to deliver. He’s recorded at least one reception in five of eight games this season, and with the Jaguars’ receiving corps in shambles — both BTJ and Hunter sidelined and newly acquired Jakobi Meyers barely a week into the playbook — Tuten and ETN could easily be Lawrence’s go-to safety valves. The Texans’ defense brings real pressure, and with limited time for routes to develop, expect plenty of quick dump-offs. Don’t be surprised if Tuten posts a season-high in receptions this week.

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James Cook HIGHER THAN 96.5 Rush + Rec Yards

   James Cook’s line of 96.5 rushing and receiving yards feels a bit too low this week against Miami. This is one of PopsBotAI’s most confident plays, and for good reason. Since returning from the bye, Cook has been on a tear — racking up 216 total yards against Carolina and following it up with 125 more versus a stout Kansas City defense. This matchup could turn into a track meet, and Buffalo will need Cook to set the tone and keep the offense balanced. At this point, he should be penciled in for 100+ total yards on a weekly basis until proven otherwise.

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Caleb Williams HIGHER THAN 19.5 Pass Completions

I’m backing Caleb Williams to go over 18.5 completions this week against the Giants. PropsBotAI had a strong confidence score of 0.76 when this line sat at 19.5, and now that it’s dropped a full completion, the value looks even better. With D’Andre Swift questionable — and the ground game not being the way to attack New York anyway — the Bears should lean on Williams’ arm. The Giants boast a stout defensive front but remain vulnerable through the air, allowing opponents to average over 23 completions per game. Expect Williams to stay hot and deliver another strong outing.

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