NFL Week 9 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
JJ McCarthy LOWER THAN 1.5 Passing TDs
If you’ve been following these articles, you probably know by now that I hate betting unders. They suck the fun out of watching games — I’d much rather cheer for a player to ball out than nervously root against them. Usually, I’m looking for bounce-back spots or plus matchups to back a player who’s being slept on. But this under is just too good to ignore. The Vikings were so hesitant to play J.J. McCarthy that they rolled out the corpse of Carson Wentz last week, only turning back to the rookie because of injury. Through his first two starts, McCarthy has thrown for two touchdowns in one game and zero in the other, and now he faces a stingy Lions defense that knows this team well as a division rival. Add in the fact that this pick carries the highest confidence score on PropBotsAI — which is an incredible 7-1 through the first eight weeks — and it’s hard not to hammer the under. The Vikings don’t trust J.J., and neither should you.
Patrick Mahomes HIGHER THAN 35.5 Pass Attempts
Patrick Mahomes over 35.5 pass attempts might seem like a coin flip on paper — he’s hit that number in just half his games this season — but that’s exactly why I love it. Most bettors will see that and shy away, but this is the perfect spot to pounce. With Isiah Pacheco sidelined, Andy Reid will once again lean on his bread and butter: short passes, screens, and quick hitters that effectively double as a run game. That means Mahomes will be in complete control of the offense from start to finish. Xavier Worthy has been quiet since Rashee Rice’s return, but I expect both to be heavily involved here, especially with Buffalo’s secondary struggling to keep anyone in front of them. Hunt’s role won’t suddenly expand, and Smith has been more of a passing-down option anyway. In a massive matchup against Buffalo, this has all the makings of a vintage “Mahomes takes over” game, and 36+ pass attempts feels well within reach and the AI algorithm agrees with me!
Justin Herbert HIGHER THAN 1.5 Passing TDs
Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns feels like one of the easiest plays on the board this week. He draws a soft matchup against a struggling Titans defense that looks primed to get blown out yet again. The Chargers enter this one projected to score close to 30 points, and Herbert has a full arsenal of healthy weapons at his disposal — McConkey, Gadsden, Allen, Johnston, Harris, and even Vidal are all legitimate threats to find the end zone through the air. The implied odds give this prop over a 60% chance to hit, and with a 7.5% edge, it’s the highest-value play of the week. Add in a confidence score of 0.84, and you can fire this one up without hesitation. You only need two touchdowns from one of the league’s most talented arms — easy money.
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