NFL Week 6 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Tet McMillan HIGHER THAN 59.5 Rec Yards

McMillan has been remarkably consistent to start his career, topping 59.5 receiving yards in four of his first five games. He’s been a focal point of the offense, seeing at least eight targets in every outing, and now draws a dream matchup against the league’s worst pass defense — a unit surrendering nearly 300 yards per game through the air. With the Cowboys offense playing well enough to keep this matchup competitive and high scoring, McMillan should stay heavily involved throughout. If you’re feeling bold, the 71.5 line offers some extra value, but the 59.5 mark provides a nice blend of value and safety for a player who’s quickly becoming a reliable yardage machine.

Kyren Williams HIGHER THAN 0.5 Rush TD

   The Ravens have struggled mightily against the run, ranking bottom five in rushing defense and allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. That’s a glaring weakness for a team facing a Rams offense favored by more than a touchdown — a game script that should lean heavily on the run as Los Angeles looks to control the clock. Williams has been the clear workhorse in this backfield, and with his volume near the goal line and the team expected to play from ahead, he’s got a strong chance to punch in a rushing score against a soft Baltimore front.The Ravens have struggled mightily against the run, ranking bottom five in rushing defense and allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. That’s a glaring weakness for a team facing a Rams offense favored by more than a touchdown — a game script that should lean heavily on the run as Los Angeles looks to control the clock. Williams has been the clear workhorse in this backfield, and with his volume near the goal line and the team expected to play from ahead, he’s got a strong chance to punch in a rushing score against a soft Baltimore front.

Justin Herbert HIGHER THAN 252.5 Pass Yards

Justin Herbert’s passing line sits at 252.5 yards, and the over looks very appealing this week. The Dolphins bring a middle-of-the-pack pass defense to the matchup, but that ranking could be misleading given the injuries they’re dealing with at cornerback. The Chargers, meanwhile, enter this game severely shorthanded in the backfield with both of their top running backs sidelined, leaving Vidal and Haskins to handle the ground game. If the run game sputters early — which is a strong possibility — expect Los Angeles to put the ball in Herbert’s hands and let him go to work through the air. Add in the fact that the Chargers have dropped two straight after a hot start and are desperate to get back on track, and all signs point to a heavy passing script with Herbert eclipsing that 252.5-yard mark.

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