NFL Week 4 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Dak Prescott HIGHER THAN 0 Pass + Rush Yards (PROMO)

This one is self-explanatory! If you've been following along you should have a free play promo in your account this week to make this week one play easier! If you haven't started playing yet, sign up for Underdog today using the link below and get up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you deposit!

Chris Olave HIGHER THAN 7.5 Targets

   This one feels as free as the promo above. Olave leads the league in targets having seen 13, 10, and 14 targets over the first three weeks. The Saints should be buried by the Bills early and they will be forced to throw the ball. Olave and Johnson will get as much work as they can handle and as long as he can avoid injury, this should be a no sweat bet.

Tyquan Thornton HIGHER THAN 24.5 Rec Yds

   This is the tricky pick of the three but sometimes it is better when the bet isn't as obvious. People are going to be scared of Worthy coming back but you can't deny the connection Mahomes has made with Thornton. He will still get multiple deep shots against a struggling Baltimore defense. His snap share has been steadily climbing as well as his target numbers. He has had over 40 receiving yards in each game this season and With Worthy coming back, I believe it is suppressing this number.

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