NFL Week 5 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Breece Hall HIGHER THAN 79.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Breece Hall has been one of the league’s most explosive backs to start the season, leading the NFL with six breakaway runs through four games and ranking ninth in explosive rating among running backs. A big part of that comes from his versatility as a pass catcher—Hall ranks fifth in targets at the position, giving him multiple ways to rack up yardage. The matchup is ideal too, as Dallas has allowed 460 total yards in each of their last three games, the most in the league over that span, and their defense has been getting gashed by big plays. Hall’s combination of home-run rushing ability and reliable passing game usage sets up perfectly for him to clear this number, whether it’s through a screen that turns into a big gain or a burst through a light box for a long run.

David Montgomery HIGHER THAN 0.5 TDs

   David Montgomery is in a prime spot to find the end zone this week against the Bengals. He’s tied for fifth in the league with three rushing touchdowns through four games, and his role only grows when the Lions are playing with a lead—something they’re expected to do as 10.5-point favorites. Cincinnati has been one of the worst run defenses in the league, consistently giving up chunk gains and struggling to keep backs out of the end zone. Montgomery has also been heavily involved near the goal line, ranking 14th among running backs with 11 red zone touches, making him a clear option for scoring opportunities when Detroit gets in close. With positive game script, a soft run defense, and a secure role at the goal line, all signs point to Montgomery punching in another rushing touchdown this week.

Cam Little HIGHER THAN 1.5 Rec Yds

   Cam Little is in a strong spot to go over 1.5 field goals this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense has found its rhythm, which means the Jaguars will need to capitalize on every scoring opportunity to keep pace. The Chiefs’ defense is excellent but plays a bend-don’t-break style, often forcing teams to settle for field goals after moving the ball into scoring territory. That sets up perfectly for Little, who has already earned the team’s trust—highlighted by his incredible 70-yard field goal in the preseason. Jacksonville should be able to sustain drives and get into field goal range multiple times, and given Little’s big leg and reliability, he has a clear path to knocking through at least two field goals in this matchup.

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