NFL Week 8 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Jordan Love HIGHER THAN 219.5 Passing Yards

Jordan Love over 219.5 passing yards is a great bounce-back spot this week. The Steelers have been a disaster against the pass, ranking as the second-worst pass defense in the league while allowing over 250 yards per game through the air. They just got torched by Joe Flacco for 340+ yards and three touchdowns, and Love has the weapons to do similar damage. Coming off a disappointing performance, this is a perfect “get right” game for the Packers’ young QB. Green Bay will be motivated to prove that moving on from Rodgers was the right call, and with Love flying under the radar after last week’s dud, it’s the perfect time to ride with the Pack and take the over.

Blake Grupe HIGHER THAN 1.5 FG's

   Blake Grupe over 1.5 field goals feels like one of the safest plays on the board this week. The Saints’ offense continues to stall out in scoring position, forcing them to rely heavily on their kicker. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense is banged up, setting up a slower-paced, field-position type of game where both sides will be content taking points when they can. No kicker in the league has attempted more field goals than Grupe this season, and he’s cleared this number in five of seven games. Coming off a one-attempt outing where he missed his lone try, this sets up perfectly for a bounce-back performance. Expect plenty of opportunities for Grupe to get back on track and cash the over.

James Cook HIGHER THAN 79.5 RSH+REC Yards

Cook is coming off a week off (bye), and heads into this matchup with a 90-yard rushing per game average. With the Bills committing to the run (over 150 rushing yards per game, 2nd highest in the NFL) and Cook getting plenty of work (107 carries in six games), the foundation is there. Add in his 5.0 yards per carry efficiency, and you’ve got a guy who isn’t just getting volume — he’s making it count. Sure, his receiving numbers are more modest (~14.8 receiving yards per game), but when you combine his rushing upside with a likely increase in touches as the Bills refocus on their identity, the 79.5 scrimmage yards line feels very beatable.

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