NFL Week 12 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Lamar Jackson HIGHER THAN 16.5 Pass Completions
Lamar Jackson higher than 16.5 pass completions is one of those sneaky spots where the numbers and matchup quietly line up. PropsBotAI is all over it, giving this play a perfect 1.0 confidence score, and we’re sliding it down to 16.5 to avoid Underdog’s inflated 18.5 line. Yeah, he’s only cleared this in 2 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 20, which is exactly why the public won’t be rushing to take it—but that’s where the edge is. He gets a soft matchup against a Jets defense that’s been getting carved up and struggling to get off the field. With Baltimore likely controlling the flow and Lamar needing to keep the offense balanced, 17+ completions feels well within reach, especially with the way this game sets up.
DJ Moore HIGHER THAN 2.5 Receptions
DJ Moore higher than 2.5 receptions is one of the most buy-low spots on the entire slate. The number has dipped way too far, and with everyone bailing after two quiet weeks, this is exactly when you want to jump back in. Moore has hauled in 3+ catches in 18 of his last 20 games, which is absurd consistency for a line sitting this low. The matchup also does him favors—the Steelers’ secondary has been soft this season. Chicago needs Moore to get going again, and in a game where they’ll rely on him to move the chains, the volume should bounce right back. This is the classic “hold your nose and trust the data” play, and everything points to Moore clearing 2.5.
Sam Darnold LOWER THAN 19.5 Pass Completions
Sam Darnold lower than 19.5 pass completions makes a ton of sense when you look at how this matchup should actually play out. To beat this Titans team, Darnold doesn’t need to sling it—he just needs to avoid mistakes and let the Seahawks lean on their defense and run game to control the tempo. This projects as a script where Seattle plays from ahead, keeps the clock moving, and limits Darnold’s pass volume. He’s also failed to hit 20 completions in 4 of his last 10 games, and that was in far more competitive or pass-heavy situations than this one. Unless Tennessee somehow turns this into a shootout—which feels unlikely—Darnold should settle comfortably under this number.
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