NFL Week 13 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Xavier Worthy HIGHER THAN 3.5 Receptions
Xavier Worthy OVER 3.5 receptions is the kind of ugly-but-beautiful play that pays off. Yes, he’s only hit this mark in 4 of 9 games and the production hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype, but Kansas City is clearly trying to get him going. Mahomes has been intentional about dialing up touches for him, and this matchup sets up perfectly for a mini-breakout. The Cowboys are bottom-three in both pass defense and points allowed, and they’ve been repeatedly exposed by speed and motion — two things Worthy brings in bunches. In a game where Mahomes should attack a vulnerable secondary, this is the ideal spot for Worthy to see a bump in targets and finally stack a volume game.
Javonte Williams HIGHER THAN 1.5 Receptions
Javonte Williams OVER 1.5 receptions is one of my absolute favorite looks of the entire slate, and it feels criminally overlooked. Everyone is distracted by the holiday chaos and the fact that Williams has only cleared this number once in his last five games, but that’s exactly why the value is there. The Chiefs just held Jonathan Taylor to 58 yards on 16 carries, making it clear that Dallas won’t be pounding the ball between the tackles with much success. The Cowboys are going to need to get Williams into space with quick dump-offs and swing passes, and that’s been the soft spot against Kansas City—RBs have logged multiple receptions in four straight games. With the Chiefs locking down opposing wideouts, the RB and TE targets naturally rise, setting Williams up for a quietly strong receiving day.
Joe Burrow LOWER THAN 36.5 Pass Attempts
Joe Burrow UNDER 36.5 pass attempts makes a lot of sense when you step back and look at the circumstances. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where he goes from just 23 attempts in Week 1 to suddenly airing it out all over the field in his Week 13 return. Cincinnati should ease him back in and doing that without Tee Higgins naturally pushes this offense toward a more balanced, run-heavy script to keep Burrow clean. Baltimore’s defense is beatable, sure, but that actually adds to the case — the Bengals don’t have to force 40+ throws to move the ball. With rust and missing weapons, the setup here leans toward an efficient outing with limited volume.
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