Two weeks into the best bets article and we sit at an even 4-4 record. The NFL plays have gone 3-1 thus far as we hit our best bet last week but dropped the honorable mention, with college football starting off just 1-3 with a best bet winner last weekend and another honorable mention loss. Both of my best bets were no sweat winners last week as they went exactly as I predicted, almost down to the final score. I called for the Jaguars to win the game outright 27-20 as 5 and a half point dogs, and in reality, they ended up winning 25-20. Similarly, I called for a Georgia Bulldogs blowout of Kentucky in a 42-17 type of game, and though that exact score didn't hit, Georgia took care of business and won in blowout fashion, 51-13. We're back with another loaded weekend slate of football and I'm looking to have a very profitable weekend. Let's cash some tickets.
IND +4 @ JAX -112
The Indianapolis Colts are my best bet this weekend as they travel down to Jacksonville to take on their division rival Jaguars. Noticing a pattern here? My week first weekend warriors best bet was on the Bills. I came back last week and faded the Bills with the Jaguars, and am now fading the Jags with the Colts. This type of zig-zag pattern doesn't always present itself nicely like this, but when it does, I find it to be profitable. I have had this string of games circled for weeks and am looking to cash another winner this week with the Colts. The Jaguars are in a horrible spot here as they return home to Jacksonville after playing back to back games in London. The Jags swept their London series and I expect them to come into this game overconfident and jet lagged. In addition, they also have a short week as they prep for their Thursday Night Football game vs the Saints on deck. They come back from two weeks across the pond and have to face all of the distractions from returning home while also having to prep for a short week next week, terrible spot for Jacksonville. On the flip side, this is a revenge spot for the Colts as they hosted the Jags week 1 and lost on their home turf 31-21. Not only is this a revenge spot for the team, but alos for starting QB Gardner Minshew as he heads back to face his old Jaguars team. Minshew is in line to start his 2nd game of the season after rookie QB Anthony Richardson was placed on the IR with a shoulder injury. I had a big play on Minshew and the Colts in his first start this year as they were a dog in this range against the Ravens. The Colts won that game outright. I see a very similar type of game here and look for a Colts victory in a 21-20 type game that comes down to a late field goal. Indianapolis will have star RB Jonathan Taylor in the lineup for just the second time this season, and while he didn't impress last weekend, I think he has a great game this week after getting his feet wet a week ago. I look for the Colts to control the time of possession with their running game and a dink and dunk offense from Minshew and Co. Give me the Colts plus the points.
Honorable Mention: TB +3 vs DET
PITT +7.5 vs Louisville -115
Plug your nose, this one is gross. I am backing the 1-4 Pitt Panthers at home against a Louisville team that just dismantled the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. This is a perfect flat spot position for the Cardinals and I look for Pitt to capitalize on it. I have faded teams in flat spots all season long and it has been a profitable betting strategy to date. Louisville should be really familiar with this as they just caught Notre Dame in a horrible flat spot last weekend and were able to spring the outright upset. Louisville put in a max effort vs Notre Dame last week and benefitted off of 5 Irish turnovers to win the game 33-20, although it wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. They now head to Pittsburgh to face a 1-4 ACC bottom feeder before hosting 17th ranked Duke in their next matchup. This is a "breather" game for Louisville as they look to catch their breath from last week before giving another max effort next weekend. I think 7.5 is entirely too many points and if the Cardinals aren't careful, they could lose this one outright. Louisville has struggled on the road this season as they only beat Georgia Tech by 5, Indiana by 7 and NC State by 3. Pitt is in the same tier as those other 3 teams and while this is more of a fade on Louisville, I believe Pitt has what it takes to cover this spread. They only have 1 win against Wofford this season and are still looking for their first big win this season. This is a familiar foe for the Panthers and a horrible spot for Louisville and I look for Pitt to win this game outright in a 27-17 type of game.
Honorable Mention: Oregon St -3.5 vs UCLA -110